TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Sulkowski vs Milosz Kukawka 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113611117119––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilosz Kukawka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Milosz Kukawka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Milosz Kukawka at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 2–2 Milosz Kukawka Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3054.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kukawka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1457 vs Kukawka 1401
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 20% vs Kukawka 0%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 30% vs Kukawka 10%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -1 · Kukawka -8
Kukawka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kukawka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kukawka form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.10 / Kukawka 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kukawka)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239258
Sulkowski2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 160 of 479
Down 0–1, comes back17% 49 of 284
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 139
Kukawka1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 240 of 371
Up 2–0, closes it98% 125 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it85% 195 of 229
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSulkowski2wins
AwayKukawka2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski2Kukawka2n = 4split evenly
S2Sulkowski2Kukawka2n = 4split evenly
S3Sulkowski2Kukawka2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSulkowskiKukawkaS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.231.2+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiKukawkaBasisWin rate · lifetime604 / 1355 vs 516 / 83344.6%61.9%604 / 1355 vs 516 / 833Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KukawkaSulkowski 2.10/Kukawka 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kukawka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 4 · 23:45B. Sulkowski3911611113M. Kukawka30311791
LOct 3 · 21:50B. Sulkowski226880M. Kukawka331111113
LOct 3 · 19:40B. Sulkowski389111171M. Kukawka4211713113
WJun 28 · 14:15B. Sulkowski341112113M. Kukawka2031070
B. Sulkowski10
WOct 5 · 00:10S. Brud1.61811119112B. Sulkowski2.20119711133LOct 4 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.10311641J. Nadolny1.6711811113WOct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.201711113L. Pietraszko1.6115770LOct 4 · 20:05J. Zochniak1.5781111113B. Sulkowski2.25114571LOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud1.801312411113B. Sulkowski1.91111411592LOct 4 · 17:20K. Kapik1.131111113B. Sulkowski5.507880WOct 4 · 16:30J. Nadolny1.2213118562B. Sulkowski4.001171111113LOct 4 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.61711113113B. Sulkowski2.2011761142WOct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski2.6311711113S. Brud1.44211671LOct 3 · 23:45M. Kolek1.4011118113B. Sulkowski2.75461171
M. Kukawka10
WOct 5 · 00:35M. Kukawka2.201111113J. Nadolny1.613590LOct 4 · 22:35M. Kukawka2.384290L. Pietraszko1.531111113LOct 4 · 21:50S. Brud1.831113113M. Kukawka1.8351160LOct 4 · 19:40M. Kukawka1.36113571K. Sulkowski2.8581111113LOct 4 · 18:30M. Kukawka1.7091111872A. Linek2.05118511113LOct 4 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.75911116122J. Glanowski1.95118811143LOct 4 · 16:15K. Rudomina1.9841112113M. Kukawka1.751171071LOct 4 · 15:25M. Kukawka1.60118391R. Stapor2.1071111113LOct 4 · 00:10M. Kukawka2.63580M. Kolek1.4411112LOct 3 · 23:20M. Kukawka1.737750M. Makajew2.001111113
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