TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Jakub Nadolny 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113115119––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:27 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Nadolny to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilosz Kukawka above · Jakub Nadolny below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 50 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jakub Nadolny at 60.5%
50 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2760.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nadolny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1401 vs Nadolny 1561
Nadolny
Wrong
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 0% vs Nadolny 60%
Nadolny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 10% vs Nadolny 40%
Nadolny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka -9 · Nadolny +1
Kukawka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Nadolny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kukawka form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 2.20 / Nadolny 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Nadolny)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239257
Kukawka2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 50 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28
Nadolny1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 6 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaNadolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 833 vs 14 / 2661.9%53.9%516 / 833 vs 14 / 26Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NadolnyKukawka 2.20/Nadolny 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Nadolny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kukawka won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Kukawka10
LOct 4 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.1011611113M. Kukawka1.67311791LOct 4 · 22:35M. Kukawka2.384290L. Pietraszko1.531111113LOct 4 · 21:50S. Brud1.831113113M. Kukawka1.8351160LOct 4 · 19:40M. Kukawka1.36113571K. Sulkowski2.8581111113LOct 4 · 18:30M. Kukawka1.7091111872A. Linek2.05118511113LOct 4 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.75911116122J. Glanowski1.95118811143LOct 4 · 16:15K. Rudomina1.9841112113M. Kukawka1.751171071LOct 4 · 15:25M. Kukawka1.60118391R. Stapor2.1071111113LOct 4 · 00:10M. Kukawka2.63580M. Kolek1.4411112LOct 3 · 23:20M. Kukawka1.737750M. Makajew2.001111113
J. Nadolny10
WOct 4 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.10311641J. Nadolny1.6711811113LOct 4 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.611211113J. Nadolny2.2010380LOct 4 · 21:25S. Brud1.401111113J. Nadolny2.756640WOct 4 · 19:40K. Kapik1.53911871J. Nadolny2.3811711113WOct 4 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.6111871382J. Nadolny2.201111111113LOct 4 · 18:05J. Nadolny1.838690S. Brud1.831111113LOct 4 · 16:30J. Nadolny1.2213118562B. Sulkowski4.001171111113LOct 4 · 15:45J. Zochniak1.73111198113J. Nadolny2.0086111172WSep 30 · 00:10P. Blocho2.6310750J. Nadolny1.441211113LSep 29 · 23:45J. Nadolny1.67111113672K. Rudomina2.10281511113
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