TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Pietraszko vs Jakub Nadolny 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1118117111311811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Jakub Nadolny below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 60.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 1–1 Jakub Nadolny Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4960.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pietraszko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1694 vs Nadolny 1534
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 80% vs Nadolny 20%
Pietraszko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 70% vs Nadolny 40%
Pietraszko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko +3 · Nadolny -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Pietraszko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadolny form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 1.615 / Nadolny 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Pietraszko)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242993
Pietraszko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 119 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it100% 49 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 97
Nadolny2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePietraszko1wins
AwayNadolny1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPietraszkoNadolnyP − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.047.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoNadolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 874 vs 11 / 2151.4%52.4%449 / 874 vs 11 / 21Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.041.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoPietraszko 1.61/Nadolny 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nadolny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 29 · 21:00L. Pietraszko3341121152J. Nadolny47117117113
WSep 29 · 15:00L. Pietraszko551111913113J. Nadolny47713111152
L. Pietraszko10
WOct 4 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.734111011183J. Zochniak2.00119125162WOct 4 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.00144611113K. Kapik1.73121111452WOct 4 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.61711113113B. Sulkowski2.2011761142LSep 29 · 23:20P. Blocho2.2571111113L. Pietraszko1.57118661WSep 29 · 22:35K. Rudomina2.001011481L. Pietraszko1.7312511113WSep 29 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.91711711113J. Mitas1.8011711982LSep 29 · 21:00J. Nadolny1.83117117113L. Pietraszko1.8341121152WSep 29 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.53716611113P. Blocho2.38111411662WSep 29 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.53813911113J. Krawczyk2.38111111552LSep 29 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.911189101J. Mitas1.8071111123
J. Nadolny10
WOct 4 · 19:40K. Kapik1.53911871J. Nadolny2.3811711113LOct 4 · 18:05J. Nadolny1.838690S. Brud1.831111113LOct 4 · 16:30J. Nadolny1.2213118562B. Sulkowski4.001171111113LOct 4 · 15:45J. Zochniak1.73111198113J. Nadolny2.0086111172WSep 30 · 00:10P. Blocho2.6310750J. Nadolny1.441211113LSep 29 · 23:45J. Nadolny1.67111113672K. Rudomina2.10281511113WSep 29 · 22:55J. Nadolny2.3812112113J. Mitas1.531061191WSep 29 · 21:00J. Nadolny1.83117117113L. Pietraszko1.8341121152LSep 29 · 20:05J. Mitas1.61511712113J. Nadolny2.20114111092LSep 29 · 19:15P. Blocho2.2511411113J. Nadolny1.57511981
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