TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Pietraszko vs Jacek Mitas 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1178119111012––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jacek Mitas @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Jacek Mitas at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 4–6 Jacek Mitas Lukasz Pietraszko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Mitas
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1688 vs Mitas 1685
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 80% vs Mitas 60%
Pietraszko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 70% vs Mitas 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko +2 · Mitas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mitas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pietraszko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 1.91 / Mitas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mitas)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13215448
Pietraszko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 95 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 95
Mitas1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 70 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePietraszko4wins
AwayMitas6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMitas leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszko50%3 of 6
AwayMitas75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko6Mitas4n = 10Pietraszko took 6 of 10
S2Pietraszko5Mitas5n = 10split evenly
S3Pietraszko7Mitas3n = 10Pietraszko took 7 of 10
S4Pietraszko1Mitas5n = 6Mitas took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPietraszkoMitasP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.835.0+0.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 874 vs 132 / 27051.1%48.9%447 / 874 vs 132 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MitasPietraszko 1.91/Mitas 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Mitas · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jacek Mitas @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
1–3
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 23:20L. Pietraszko391510681J. Mitas47131211113
LSep 22 · 20:30L. Pietraszko32871161J. Mitas4011117113
LAug 2 · 22:35L. Pietraszko33115981J. Mitas4071111113
LAug 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko4681111972J. Mitas49119711113
WJun 15 · 02:20L. Pietraszko331111113J. Mitas259790
WJun 14 · 23:55L. Pietraszko4291111113J. Mitas35116991
WJun 14 · 17:30L. Pietraszko341211113J. Mitas1510410
LMay 26 · 01:05L. Pietraszko4011411862J. Mitas42411511113
LMay 25 · 22:40L. Pietraszko2486100J. Mitas341111123
WMay 25 · 20:35L. Pietraszko351113113J. Mitas2331190
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 29 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.57712114123A. Linek2.251110511102WSep 29 · 15:00L. Pietraszko2.001111913113J. Nadolny1.73713111152LSep 28 · 00:35M. Kolek1.8311711113L. Pietraszko1.83611981WSep 27 · 22:55M. Olbrycht1.619830L. Pietraszko2.201111113WSep 27 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.5711119111L. Pietraszko2.2513911133WSep 27 · 21:25J. Kuzmicz1.28101191192L. Pietraszko3.50126114113WSep 27 · 19:40J. Zochniak2.00161181162L. Pietraszko1.73189119113LSep 27 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.57114118113L. Pietraszko2.2581181182LSep 27 · 18:05L. Pietraszko3.5091111762J. Kuzmicz1.28116711113WSep 27 · 16:30L. Pietraszko2.2511126113M. Olbrycht1.575101131
J. Mitas10
WSep 29 · 18:30A. Linek3.756430J. Mitas1.251111113WSep 29 · 16:55J. Mitas1.301111113P. Blocho3.406630WSep 29 · 15:45J. Mitas1.221111113J. Krawczyk4.006960LSep 28 · 23:20J. Glanowski3.401211611113J. Mitas1.3014911492LSep 28 · 22:35J. Nadolny2.751111113J. Mitas1.407960WSep 28 · 22:10J. Mitas1.221011514113K. Rudomina4.00127111222WSep 28 · 21:00B. Kwodawski5.756540J. Mitas1.121111113WSep 28 · 20:30J. Mitas1.4441111123J. Glanowski2.631164101WSep 28 · 18:48J. Mitas1.6111911113J. Nadolny2.20911481WSep 28 · 17:40J. Mitas1.281112113K. Rudomina3.5041060
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