TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kuzmicz vs Lukasz Pietraszko 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116911114911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 77.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 18–5 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 5 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kuzmicz beat Pietraszko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:20What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kuzmicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-5 in 23
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 13 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1849 vs Pietraszko 1668
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 100% vs Pietraszko 60%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 70% vs Pietraszko 50%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz +5 · Pietraszko +1
Kuzmicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pietraszko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 1.28 / Pietraszko 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13200998
Kuzmicz1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 397 of 634
Up 2–0, closes it98% 166 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it82% 277 of 337
Pietraszko3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 91 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmicz8wins
AwayPietraszko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz83.3%5 of 6
AwayPietraszko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz6Pietraszko4n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Kuzmicz6Pietraszko4n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S3Kuzmicz7Pietraszko3n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S4Kuzmicz7Pietraszko1n = 8Kuzmicz took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmiczPietraszkoK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.735.9+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime718 / 1247 vs 444 / 87857.6%50.6%718 / 1247 vs 444 / 878Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKuzmicz 1.28/Pietraszko 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.5%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 18:05J. Kuzmicz46116711113L. Pietraszko4491111762
WSep 6 · 20:05J. Kuzmicz4391211113L. Pietraszko361110961
WSep 2 · 21:00J. Kuzmicz4814157123L. Pietraszko46121311101
WAug 19 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz331111113L. Pietraszko169340
WAug 12 · 17:40J. Kuzmicz4061211113L. Pietraszko371110881
WAug 5 · 15:45J. Kuzmicz3851111113L. Pietraszko33118861
LAug 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz47611111182L. Pietraszko52111398113
WJul 29 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz4311912113L. Pietraszko366111091
WJul 29 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz331111113L. Pietraszko199550
LJul 24 · 01:10J. Kuzmicz36118891L. Pietraszko4071111113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 27 · 21:50J. Kuzmicz1.4011117113M. Kolek2.75551151WSep 27 · 20:30F. Mlynarski2.50101191182J. Kuzmicz1.50128119113WSep 27 · 19:15J. Kuzmicz1.301111113M. Olbrycht3.407930WSep 27 · 18:05L. Pietraszko3.5091111762J. Kuzmicz1.28116711113WSep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek3.0010911131J. Kuzmicz1.3612115153WSep 27 · 15:25J. Zochniak3.005101361J. Kuzmicz1.36111211113LSep 27 · 00:35J. Kuzmicz1.4451171182F. Mlynarski2.63117117113WSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.306890D. Kostal3.401111113LSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht3.501111113J. Kuzmicz1.288960
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 27 · 22:55M. Olbrycht1.619830L. Pietraszko2.201111113WSep 27 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.5711119111L. Pietraszko2.2513911133WSep 27 · 19:40J. Zochniak2.00161181162L. Pietraszko1.73189119113LSep 27 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.57114118113L. Pietraszko2.2581181182LSep 27 · 18:05L. Pietraszko3.5091111762J. Kuzmicz1.28116711113WSep 27 · 16:30L. Pietraszko2.2511126113M. Olbrycht1.575101131WSep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek1.91129551L. Pietraszko1.80101111113LSep 22 · 23:20J. Mitas1.80131211113L. Pietraszko1.911510681WSep 22 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5312870L. Pietraszko2.381411113LSep 22 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.00411431J. Chmielowski1.7311911113
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