TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Pietraszko vs Jakub Kuzmicz 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116117711611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 64.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 5–17 Jakub Kuzmicz Lukasz Pietraszko has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-17 in 22
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1676 vs Kuzmicz 1815
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 60% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 60% vs Kuzmicz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko +2 · Kuzmicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 3.50 / Kuzmicz 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13201002
Pietraszko3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 91 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 95
Kuzmicz1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 397 of 634
Up 2–0, closes it98% 166 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it82% 277 of 337
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePietraszko2wins
AwayKuzmicz8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszko25%1 of 4
AwayKuzmicz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Pietraszko3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S3Pietraszko2Kuzmicz8n = 10Kuzmicz took 8 of 10
S4Pietraszko1Kuzmicz6n = 7Kuzmicz took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPietraszkoKuzmiczP − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.139.4−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 875 vs 715 / 124450.6%57.5%443 / 875 vs 715 / 1244Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczPietraszko 3.50/Kuzmicz 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko361110961J. Kuzmicz4391211113
LSep 2 · 21:00L. Pietraszko46121311101J. Kuzmicz4814157123
LAug 19 · 22:10L. Pietraszko169340J. Kuzmicz331111113
LAug 12 · 17:40L. Pietraszko371110881J. Kuzmicz4061211113
LAug 5 · 15:45L. Pietraszko33118861J. Kuzmicz3851111113
WAug 3 · 23:20L. Pietraszko52111398113J. Kuzmicz47611111182
LJul 29 · 22:10L. Pietraszko366111091J. Kuzmicz4311912113
LJul 29 · 18:30L. Pietraszko199550J. Kuzmicz331111113
WJul 24 · 01:10L. Pietraszko4071111113J. Kuzmicz36118891
LJul 23 · 22:50L. Pietraszko165650J. Kuzmicz331111113
L. Pietraszko10
LSep 27 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.57114118113L. Pietraszko2.2581181182WSep 27 · 16:30L. Pietraszko2.2511126113M. Olbrycht1.575101131WSep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek1.91129551L. Pietraszko1.80101111113LSep 22 · 23:20J. Mitas1.80131211113L. Pietraszko1.911510681WSep 22 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5312870L. Pietraszko2.381411113LSep 22 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.00411431J. Chmielowski1.7311911113WSep 22 · 21:00K. Rudomina2.1011111071L. Pietraszko1.6713412113LSep 22 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.91871161J. Mitas1.8011117113WSep 22 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.57111199143P. Blocho2.25551111122LSep 22 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.00114731J. Chmielowski1.7391111113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 27 · 19:15J. Kuzmicz1.301111113M. Olbrycht3.407930WSep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek3.0010911131J. Kuzmicz1.3612115153WSep 27 · 15:25J. Zochniak3.005101361J. Kuzmicz1.36111211113LSep 27 · 00:35J. Kuzmicz1.4451171182F. Mlynarski2.63117117113WSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.306890D. Kostal3.401111113LSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht3.501111113J. Kuzmicz1.288960WSep 26 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.2213113113A. Wos4.001131181LSep 26 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5386110F. Mlynarski2.381111133LSep 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.369101181M. Kolek3.0011126113
Upcoming Matches
L. Pietraszko
J. Kuzmicz
Sep 27 · 20:30J. Kuzmicz1.50F. Mlynarski2.50—Sep 27 · 21:25J. Kuzmicz1.28L. Pietraszko3.50—Sep 27 · 21:50J. Kuzmicz1.40M. Kolek2.75—Sep 27 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.50F. Mlynarski2.50—Sep 28 · 00:10J. Kuzmicz1.30M. Olbrycht3.40—Sep 28 · 03:20J. Kuzmicz—K. Kapik——Sep 28 · 04:00J. Kuzmicz—M. Rutkowski——Sep 28 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz—G. Poliniewicz——Sep 28 · 06:25J. Kuzmicz—M. Sklensky——Sep 28 · 07:40J. Kuzmicz—D. Kostal——
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