TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Brud vs Bartosz Sulkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191179111113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:06 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSzymon Brud to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSzymon Brud above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 101 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Szymon Brud at 58.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Brud 16–12 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Brud beat Sulkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:0658.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Brud
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Brud
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1545 vs Sulkowski 1457
Brud
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 60% vs Sulkowski 40%
Brud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 60% vs Sulkowski 40%
Brud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud -1 · Sulkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Brud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 1.615 / Sulkowski 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Brud)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239368
Brud1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 138 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 89 of 116
Sulkowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 160 of 479
Down 0–1, comes back17% 49 of 284
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrud7wins
AwaySulkowski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBrud leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrud100%4 of 4
AwaySulkowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud4Sulkowski6n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S2Brud9Sulkowski1n = 10Brud took 9 of 10
S3Brud6Sulkowski4n = 10Brud took 6 of 10
S4Brud4Sulkowski3n = 7Brud took 4 of 7
S5Brud2Sulkowski1n = 3Brud took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrudSulkowskiB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.5+2.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1110 vs 604 / 135552.9%44.6%587 / 1110 vs 604 / 1355Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrudBrud 1.61/Sulkowski 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Brud · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud511312411113B. Sulkowski50111411592
LOct 4 · 00:35S. Brud26211671B. Sulkowski4011711113
WOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud331111113B. Sulkowski219750
LSep 8 · 14:40S. Brud32611961B. Sulkowski4011711113
WJul 12 · 16:35S. Brud341211113B. Sulkowski2410680
LJun 14 · 03:30S. Brud3931171262B. Sulkowski521191110113
WJun 13 · 12:35S. Brud49911115133B. Sulkowski41114411112
WApr 29 · 09:50S. Brud4291111113B. Sulkowski31118571
WApr 28 · 13:30S. Brud331111113B. Sulkowski219570
WApr 27 · 10:35S. Brud44101112113B. Sulkowski351251081
S. Brud10
LOct 4 · 23:20S. Brud1.911212101192L. Pietraszko1.801014123113WOct 4 · 21:50S. Brud1.831113113M. Kukawka1.8351160WOct 4 · 21:25S. Brud1.401111113J. Nadolny2.756640LOct 4 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.447181114123S. Brud2.631116516102WOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud1.801312411113B. Sulkowski1.91111411592WOct 4 · 18:05J. Nadolny1.838690S. Brud1.831111113WOct 4 · 16:55J. Zochniak2.001110115102S. Brud1.73312611123LOct 4 · 15:25K. Kapik1.401113113S. Brud2.7571180LOct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski2.6311711113S. Brud1.44211671WOct 3 · 22:55M. Kolek1.679121191S. Brud2.1011148113
B. Sulkowski10
WOct 4 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.1011611113M. Kukawka1.67311791LOct 4 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.10311641J. Nadolny1.6711811113WOct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.201711113L. Pietraszko1.6115770LOct 4 · 20:05J. Zochniak1.5781111113B. Sulkowski2.25114571LOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud1.801312411113B. Sulkowski1.91111411592LOct 4 · 17:20K. Kapik1.131111113B. Sulkowski5.507880WOct 4 · 16:30J. Nadolny1.2213118562B. Sulkowski4.001171111113LOct 4 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.61711113113B. Sulkowski2.2011761142WOct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski2.6311711113S. Brud1.44211671LOct 3 · 23:45M. Kolek1.4011118113B. Sulkowski2.75461171
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