TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Brud vs Lukasz Pietraszko 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121012141012113911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:07 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Brud above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 55.5%
104 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Brud 5–3 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pietraszko beat Brud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:0755.5%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.1pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pietraszko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Brud
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1552 vs Pietraszko 1678
Pietraszko
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 80% vs Pietraszko 60%
Brud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 60% vs Pietraszko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud +2 · Pietraszko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Pietraszko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 1.909 / Pietraszko 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Pietraszko)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13239369
Brud1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Pietraszko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 119 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it100% 49 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBrud5wins
AwayPietraszko3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBrud leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrud83.3%5 of 6
AwayPietraszkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud6Pietraszko2n = 8Brud took 6 of 8
S2Brud3Pietraszko5n = 8Pietraszko took 5 of 8
S3Brud6Pietraszko2n = 8Brud took 6 of 8
S4Brud4Pietraszko1n = 5Brud took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricBrudPietraszkoB − PBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.838.0+2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime588 / 1111 vs 452 / 87952.9%51.4%588 / 1111 vs 452 / 879Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoBrud 1.91/Pietraszko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 4 · 20:30S. Brud581116516102L. Pietraszko627181114123
WApr 27 · 16:15S. Brud331111113L. Pietraszko226790
WApr 27 · 13:05S. Brud361411113L. Pietraszko3012990
LMar 23 · 19:55S. Brud237970L. Pietraszko331111113
WMar 16 · 20:20S. Brud4411911133L. Pietraszko399118111
WFeb 23 · 19:55S. Brud45111112113L. Pietraszko408131091
WDec 26 · 14:05S. Brud4011711113L. Pietraszko31711491
LOct 20 · 16:15S. Brud4781112792L. Pietraszko471141011113
S. Brud10
LOct 5 · 00:10S. Brud1.61811119112B. Sulkowski2.20119711133WOct 4 · 21:50S. Brud1.831113113M. Kukawka1.8351160WOct 4 · 21:25S. Brud1.401111113J. Nadolny2.756640LOct 4 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.447181114123S. Brud2.631116516102WOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud1.801312411113B. Sulkowski1.91111411592WOct 4 · 18:05J. Nadolny1.838690S. Brud1.831111113WOct 4 · 16:55J. Zochniak2.001110115102S. Brud1.73312611123LOct 4 · 15:25K. Kapik1.401113113S. Brud2.7571180LOct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski2.6311711113S. Brud1.44211671WOct 3 · 22:55M. Kolek1.679121191S. Brud2.1011148113
L. Pietraszko10
WOct 4 · 22:35M. Kukawka2.384290L. Pietraszko1.531111113WOct 4 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.611211113J. Nadolny2.2010380LOct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.201711113L. Pietraszko1.6115770WOct 4 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.447181114123S. Brud2.631116516102LOct 4 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.6111871382J. Nadolny2.201111111113WOct 4 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.734111011183J. Zochniak2.00119125162WOct 4 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.00144611113K. Kapik1.73121111452WOct 4 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.61711113113B. Sulkowski2.2011761142LSep 29 · 23:20P. Blocho2.2571111113L. Pietraszko1.57118661WSep 29 · 22:35K. Rudomina2.001011481L. Pietraszko1.7312511113
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