TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Sulkowski vs Szymon Brud 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112711116117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:16 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeSzymon Brud to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Szymon Brud below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 66 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Szymon Brud at 65.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 12–15 Szymon Brud Bartosz Sulkowski has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Brud beat Sulkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1665.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Brud
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Brud
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1444 vs Brud 1500
Brud
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 20% vs Brud 80%
Brud
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 30% vs Brud 60%
Brud
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -4 · Brud +1
Sulkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Brud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.625 / Brud 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Brud)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233814
Sulkowski2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog34% won 158 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back18% 49 of 279
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 134
Brud1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 135 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it90% 56 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it76% 87 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski4wins
AwayBrud6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBrud leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayBrud100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski7Brud3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S2Sulkowski1Brud9n = 10Brud took 9 of 10
S3Sulkowski3Brud7n = 10Brud took 7 of 10
S4Sulkowski4Brud3n = 7Sulkowski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiBrudS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.636.5−1.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiBrudBasisWin rate · lifetime601 / 1347 vs 587 / 111244.6%52.8%601 / 1347 vs 587 / 1112Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrudSulkowski 2.63/Brud 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Brud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski4011711113S. Brud26211671
LOct 3 · 15:45B. Sulkowski219750S. Brud331111113
WSep 8 · 14:40B. Sulkowski4011711113S. Brud32611961
LJul 12 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2410680S. Brud341211113
WJun 14 · 03:30B. Sulkowski521191110113S. Brud3931171262
LJun 13 · 12:35B. Sulkowski41114411112S. Brud49911115133
LApr 29 · 09:50B. Sulkowski31118571S. Brud4291111113
LApr 28 · 13:30B. Sulkowski219570S. Brud331111113
LApr 27 · 10:35B. Sulkowski351251081S. Brud44101112113
WMar 23 · 01:20B. Sulkowski4111118113S. Brud33591181
B. Sulkowski10
LOct 3 · 23:45M. Kolek1.4011118113B. Sulkowski2.75461171LOct 3 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.001081151M. Makajew1.7312116113LOct 3 · 21:50M. Kukawka1.801111113B. Sulkowski1.866880LOct 3 · 19:40M. Kukawka2.2011713113B. Sulkowski1.619111171WOct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew1.6781161142B. Sulkowski2.10119119113LOct 3 · 18:05B. Sulkowski2.6381080M. Kolek1.441112113LOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113LOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud1.441111113B. Sulkowski2.639750WOct 2 · 00:35B. Sulkowski1.9111911123A. Linek1.808117101WOct 1 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.801191191B. Sulkowski1.9191113113
S. Brud10
WOct 3 · 22:55M. Kolek1.679121191S. Brud2.1011148113LOct 3 · 22:10M. Makajew2.0011115113S. Brud1.73691181WOct 3 · 21:25M. Kukawka1.805870S. Brud1.911111113WOct 3 · 20:05S. Brud1.57511911113R. Stapor2.2511811672WOct 3 · 18:30M. Kukawka1.6713412992S. Brud2.1011111011113WOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113LOct 3 · 16:55S. Brud2.25711381M. Kolek1.5711711113WOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud1.441111113B. Sulkowski2.639750LOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181LOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
Oct 4 · 15:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Oct 4 · 16:30B. Sulkowski—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 17:20B. Sulkowski—K. Kapik——Oct 4 · 19:15B. Sulkowski—S. Brud——Oct 4 · 20:05B. Sulkowski—J. Zochniak——Oct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Oct 4 · 22:55B. Sulkowski—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 23:45B. Sulkowski—M. Kukawka——Oct 5 · 00:10B. Sulkowski—S. Brud——
S. Brud
Oct 4 · 15:25S. Brud—K. Kapik——Oct 4 · 16:55S. Brud—J. Zochniak——Oct 4 · 18:05S. Brud—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 19:15S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 20:30S. Brud—L. Pietraszko——Oct 4 · 21:25S. Brud—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 21:50S. Brud—M. Kukawka——Oct 4 · 23:20S. Brud—L. Pietraszko——Oct 5 · 00:10S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——
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