TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Szymon Brud 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13114111210911911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMilosz Kukawka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilosz Kukawka above · Szymon Brud below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-7
Point 96 set 5, 8-7 · our read held Milosz Kukawka at 55.8%
96 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Milosz Kukawka 2–0 Szymon Brud Szymon Brud has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2555.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kukawka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1516 vs Brud 1477
Kukawka
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 80% vs Brud 40%
Kukawka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 50% vs Brud 30%
Kukawka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka +2 · Brud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kukawka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kukawka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 1.666 / Brud 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kukawka)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233819
Kukawka1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 240 of 369
Up 2–0, closes it98% 124 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it85% 193 of 227
Brud2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back25% 20 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKukawka2wins
AwayBrud0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKukawka leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKukawkaBrudK − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match49.542.5+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaBrudBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 820 vs 588 / 111362.7%52.8%514 / 820 vs 588 / 1113Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KukawkaKukawka 1.67/Brud 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kukawka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 3 · 00:45M. Kukawka45111112113S. Brud39881491
WOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka541271111133S. Brud46141155112
M. Kukawka10
WOct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.801111113R. Stapor1.913780WOct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew2.00212691M. Kukawka1.73111011113LOct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka2.50119681M. Kolek1.5091111113WOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 23:35M. Kukawka2.3861270K. Staszczyk1.531114113LOct 2 · 22:50G. Kesik1.73712118113M. Kukawka2.00111041152WOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112LOct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.5711611113M. Kukawka2.25711751LOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192
S. Brud10
WOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113LOct 3 · 16:55S. Brud2.25711381M. Kolek1.5711711113WOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud1.441111113B. Sulkowski2.639750LOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181LOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113LOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112WOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123LOct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal1.5311163113S. Brud2.384141161
Upcoming Matches
M. Kukawka
Oct 3 · 21:25M. Kukawka1.80S. Brud1.91—Oct 3 · 21:50M. Kukawka1.83B. Sulkowski1.83—Oct 3 · 23:20M. Kukawka1.73M. Makajew2.00—Oct 4 · 00:10M. Kukawka2.63M. Kolek1.44—Oct 4 · 15:25M. Kukawka—R. Stapor——Oct 4 · 16:15M. Kukawka—K. Rudomina——Oct 4 · 17:20M. Kukawka—J. Glanowski——Oct 4 · 18:30M. Kukawka—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 19:40M. Kukawka—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 21:50M. Kukawka—S. Brud——
S. Brud
Oct 3 · 20:05S. Brud1.61R. Stapor2.20—Oct 3 · 21:25S. Brud1.91M. Kukawka1.80—Oct 3 · 22:10S. Brud1.73M. Makajew2.00—Oct 3 · 22:55S. Brud2.00M. Kolek1.73—Oct 4 · 00:35S. Brud1.50B. Sulkowski2.50—Oct 4 · 15:25S. Brud—K. Kapik——Oct 4 · 16:55S. Brud—J. Zochniak——Oct 4 · 18:05S. Brud—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 19:15S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 20:30S. Brud—L. Pietraszko——
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