TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Brud vs Maciej Makajew 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119511411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:51 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeSzymon Brud to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSzymon Brud above · Maciej Makajew below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Szymon Brud at 56.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Brud 13–9 Maciej Makajew Maciej Makajew has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Brud beat Makajew 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5156.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Brud
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Brud
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1496 vs Makajew 1438
Brud
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 40% vs Makajew 20%
Brud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 60% vs Makajew 40%
Brud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud -2 · Makajew -4
Makajew
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Brud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makajew form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 1.666 / Makajew 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Brud)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233824
Brud1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 139 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it91% 60 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 118
Makajew2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrud7wins
AwayMakajew3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBrud leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrud80%4 of 5
AwayMakajew40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud5Makajew5n = 10split evenly
S2Brud6Makajew4n = 10Brud took 6 of 10
S3Brud6Makajew4n = 10Brud took 6 of 10
S4Brud5Makajew3n = 8Brud took 5 of 8
S5Brud3Makajew2n = 5Brud took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrudMakajewB − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.042.6−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudMakajewBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1114 vs 210 / 38752.7%54.3%587 / 1114 vs 210 / 387Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrudBrud 1.67/Makajew 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Brud · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makajew won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 17:40S. Brud341112113M. Makajew2791080
LMay 30 · 23:25S. Brud184680M. Makajew331111113
WMay 30 · 21:05S. Brud54139117143M. Makajew491111411122
LMay 30 · 17:50S. Brud4061131192M. Makajew47117117113
WMay 30 · 01:25S. Brud49111510133M. Makajew4591312111
WMay 29 · 22:55S. Brud4061211113M. Makajew351110591
WMay 29 · 20:05S. Brud46514114123M. Makajew491112511102
LMay 28 · 23:20S. Brud4211118392M. Makajew49791111113
WMay 28 · 21:00S. Brud47121211123M. Makajew4010146101
WMay 28 · 17:45S. Brud50771213113M. Makajew521111101192
S. Brud10
LOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181LOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113LOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112WOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123LOct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal1.5311163113S. Brud2.384141161WOct 2 · 17:40M. Makajew2.2091080S. Brud1.611112113LOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WSep 27 · 23:20J. Glanowski2.2091060S. Brud1.571112113WSep 27 · 22:35A. Linek1.917111171S. Brud1.8011139113
M. Makajew10
LOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641LOct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.3011711113M. Makajew3.40411671LOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100LOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890LOct 2 · 17:40M. Makajew2.2091080S. Brud1.611112113LOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WAug 29 · 14:35A. Wos1.95820881M. Makajew1.74111811113WAug 29 · 13:25M. Makajew2.10941111113K. Szurlej1.6011117962
Upcoming Matches
S. Brud
M. Makajew
Oct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew—M. Kukawka——Oct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 20:30M. Makajew—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 21:00M. Makajew—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 22:10M. Makajew—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 22:35M. Makajew—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 23:20M. Makajew—M. Kukawka——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.