TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Kosmal vs Szymon Brud 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141614311116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kosmal to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Kosmal above · Szymon Brud below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 5-3
Point 67 set 4, 5-3 · our read held Dawid Kosmal at 64.0%
67 points drawn · the score is 9 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Dawid Kosmal 9–5 Szymon Brud Szymon Brud has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2864.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kosmal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Kosmal
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosmal 1680 vs Brud 1508
Kosmal
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosmal 80% vs Brud 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosmal 70% vs Brud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosmal -1 · Brud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kosmal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosmal 1.533 / Brud 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kosmal)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228810
Kosmal1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 166 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it96% 89 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it84% 133 of 158
Brud2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 42 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosmal7wins
AwayBrud3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKosmal leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosmal100%5 of 5
AwayBrud60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosmal5Brud5n = 10split evenly
S2Kosmal8Brud2n = 10Kosmal took 8 of 10
S3Kosmal5Brud5n = 10split evenly
S4Kosmal7Brud2n = 9Kosmal took 7 of 9
S5Kosmal2Brud3n = 5Brud took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosmalBrudK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.638.4+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosmalBrudBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 666 vs 587 / 111453.8%52.7%358 / 666 vs 587 / 1114Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosmalKosmal 1.53/Brud 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Kosmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kosmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 04:00D. Kosmal4071111113S. Brud32114981
WAug 18 · 04:00D. Kosmal4211137113S. Brud315111141
LAug 11 · 11:00D. Kosmal53911125162S. Brud561161011183
WAug 11 · 04:00D. Kosmal3911116113S. Brud25471131
WAug 10 · 14:40D. Kosmal5311111010113S. Brud4487121252
WMay 19 · 15:00D. Kosmal43511511113S. Brud4311511972
LMar 24 · 21:05D. Kosmal4587111182S. Brud45111148113
WMar 16 · 21:30D. Kosmal3911116113S. Brud35881181
WFeb 25 · 12:50D. Kosmal361111143S. Brud2567120
LFeb 24 · 17:35D. Kosmal4696111462S. Brud481111312113
D. Kosmal10
LOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WOct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.00111411113M. Rutkowski1.72816791WOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151WOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040LOct 2 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.9511891182P. Jendrzejewski1.70611118113LOct 2 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.83981181K. Wisniewski1.8711116113WOct 1 · 19:40A. Linek2.638111081D. Kosmal1.4411512113WOct 1 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.57961191D. Kosmal2.2511115113WOct 1 · 18:05D. Kosmal1.67121110113D. Solilo2.101091271
S. Brud10
WOct 2 · 17:40M. Makajew2.2091080S. Brud1.611112113LOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WSep 27 · 23:20J. Glanowski2.2091060S. Brud1.571112113WSep 27 · 22:35A. Linek1.917111171S. Brud1.8011139113WSep 27 · 22:15S. Brud1.3513811113D. Kotwica2.851111491WSep 27 · 21:05K. Rudomina1.718660S. Brud2.001111113LSep 27 · 20:30S. Brud1.78691391J. Glanowski1.93111111113LSep 27 · 18:55S. Brud1.8581140A. Linek1.861113113WSep 27 · 17:45S. Brud1.35913611113D. Kotwica2.99111111592LSep 27 · 16:15S. Brud1.757460D. Poloszczanski1.981111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Kosmal
S. Brud
Oct 2 · 20:30S. Brud1.53G. Kesik2.38—Oct 2 · 21:20S. Brud1.73M. Kukawka2.00—Oct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.75K. Staszczyk1.40—Oct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67M. Makajew2.10—Oct 3 · 00:45S. Brud—M. Kukawka——Oct 3 · 01:10S. Brud1.53G. Kesik2.38—Oct 3 · 15:45S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 16:55S. Brud—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 17:40S. Brud—M. Makajew——Oct 3 · 18:30S. Brud—M. Kukawka——
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