TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Dawid Kosmal 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117611118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Dawid Kosmal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 2–1 Dawid Kosmal Dawid Kosmal has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1154.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1721 vs Kosmal 1692
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Kosmal 80%
Staszczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 90% vs Kosmal 70%
Staszczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +6 · Kosmal +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosmal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.727 / Kosmal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Staszczyk)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228812
Staszczyk1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 208 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 150 of 177
Kosmal2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 67 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStaszczyk2wins
AwayKosmal1wins
Staszczyk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk2Kosmal1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S2Staszczyk2Kosmal1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S3Staszczyk2Kosmal1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStaszczykKosmalS − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.733.0+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 424 vs 359 / 66658.7%53.9%249 / 424 vs 359 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.73/Kosmal 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 1 · 18:50K. Staszczyk35961191D. Kosmal3811115113
WSep 11 · 10:05K. Staszczyk4211128113D. Kosmal388101191
WMay 21 · 19:20K. Staszczyk331111113D. Kosmal238870
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WOct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo2.50106100K. Staszczyk1.501211123WOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113WOct 1 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.4461111113A. Linek2.63116581WOct 1 · 21:00J. Glanowski3.256950K. Staszczyk1.331111113WOct 1 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.5011511113D. Solilo2.50811981LOct 1 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.57961191D. Kosmal2.2511115113WOct 1 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.331111123J. Glanowski3.2587100WOct 1 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.40111110113A. Linek2.75641241WOct 1 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.281111113A. Mugowski3.504470
D. Kosmal10
WOct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal1.5311163113S. Brud2.384141161WOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WOct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.00111411113M. Rutkowski1.72816791WOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151WOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040LOct 2 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.9511891182P. Jendrzejewski1.70611118113LOct 2 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.83981181K. Wisniewski1.8711116113WOct 1 · 19:40A. Linek2.638111081D. Kosmal1.4411512113WOct 1 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.57961191D. Kosmal2.2511115113WOct 1 · 18:05D. Kosmal1.67121110113D. Solilo2.101091271
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
Oct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53M. Kukawka2.38—Oct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.36M. Makajew3.00—Oct 2 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.40G. Kesik2.75—Oct 2 · 22:05K. Staszczyk1.44S. Brud2.63—Oct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.33M. Makajew3.25—Oct 2 · 23:35K. Staszczyk1.53M. Kukawka2.38—Oct 3 · 00:20K. Staszczyk1.40G. Kesik2.75—
D. Kosmal
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