TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Kosmal vs Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118711115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
118118711115––
H2H Dawid Kosmal 12–19 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Dawid Kosmal has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4957.2%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 4.1pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Poliniewicz
Wrong
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosmal 1659 vs Poliniewicz 1679
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosmal 60% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Kosmal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosmal 70% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Kosmal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosmal +1 · Poliniewicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Poliniewicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosmal 2.15 / Poliniewicz 1.63
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Poliniewicz)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228817
Kosmal2.15
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 67 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Poliniewicz1.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 317 of 451
Up 2–0, closes it95% 144 of 151
Up 1–0, closes it83% 236 of 284
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosmal5wins
AwayPoliniewicz5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosmaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPoliniewicz50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosmal2Poliniewicz8n = 10Poliniewicz took 8 of 10
S2Kosmal6Poliniewicz4n = 10Kosmal took 6 of 10
S3Kosmal5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Kosmal4Poliniewicz5n = 9Poliniewicz took 5 of 9
S5Kosmal4Poliniewicz2n = 6Kosmal took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosmalPoliniewiczK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.941.7−2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosmalPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 666 vs 1229 / 211453.9%58.1%359 / 666 vs 1229 / 2114Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczKosmal 2.15/Poliniewicz 1.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kosmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 13:50D. Kosmal4381111582G. Poliniewicz49117911113
LSep 25 · 08:30D. Kosmal25113741G. Poliniewicz4071111113
LSep 16 · 11:20D. Kosmal4066111252G. Poliniewicz501111710113
WSep 16 · 04:00D. Kosmal47711711113G. Poliniewicz4011511492
WSep 10 · 12:35D. Kosmal49912116113G. Poliniewicz47111081172
WAug 19 · 09:20D. Kosmal3851111113G. Poliniewicz33118861
LAug 18 · 09:45D. Kosmal346111161G. Poliniewicz4311813113
WAug 5 · 09:20D. Kosmal47711117113G. Poliniewicz3511341162
LJul 15 · 07:15D. Kosmal165560G. Poliniewicz331111113
WJul 15 · 04:50D. Kosmal501171011113G. Poliniewicz4781112882
D. Kosmal10
WOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040LOct 2 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.9511891182P. Jendrzejewski1.70611118113LOct 2 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.83981181K. Wisniewski1.8711116113WOct 1 · 19:40A. Linek2.638111081D. Kosmal1.4411512113WOct 1 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.57961191D. Kosmal2.2511115113WOct 1 · 18:05D. Kosmal1.67121110113D. Solilo2.101091271LOct 1 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.501112981A. Mugowski2.5091411113WOct 1 · 15:45J. Glanowski2.001112781D. Kosmal1.7391411113WOct 1 · 14:40D. Kosmal1.651111133B. Czerwinski2.1078110WOct 1 · 13:05D. Kosmal1.40471112113A. Mugowski2.65111121092
G. Poliniewicz10
WOct 2 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.051111133M. Rutkowski1.6588110LOct 2 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz1.80111101292K. Wisniewski1.914111210113LOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392WOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50781561K. Wloczko1.50111113113LOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980LOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191WOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113WOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 12:35M. Olbrycht1.9351111123G. Poliniewicz1.771168101
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