TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Mateusz Rutkowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181311––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1181181311––––
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 6–6 Mateusz Rutkowski Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0155.9%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 4.7pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1663 vs Rutkowski 1688
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 20% vs Rutkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 30% vs Rutkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz -2 · Rutkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 2.05 / Rutkowski 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Rutkowski)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13231350
Poliniewicz2.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 132 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back19% 40 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 127
Rutkowski1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 357 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it98% 174 of 178
Up 1–0, closes it90% 282 of 315
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz5wins
AwayRutkowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz83.3%5 of 6
AwayRutkowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz6Rutkowski4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Poliniewicz6Rutkowski4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S3Poliniewicz3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Poliniewicz3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S5Poliniewicz3Rutkowski1n = 4Poliniewicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczRutkowskiP − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.642.5+1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1228 / 2113 vs 829 / 147958.1%56.1%1228 / 2113 vs 829 / 1479Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiPoliniewicz 2.05/Rutkowski 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz501115310113M. Rutkowski52813111282
LSep 28 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz4295111162M. Rutkowski44111156113
WSep 24 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz48131113113M. Rutkowski331131541
LSep 24 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz47111115101M. Rutkowski4513317123
LSep 23 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz35871191M. Rutkowski3711114113
WSep 21 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz52131198113M. Rutkowski49119111172
WSep 17 · 14:35G. Poliniewicz3811115113M. Rutkowski37891191
LSep 16 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz391186141M. Rutkowski4571111163
LSep 14 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz3811115111M. Rutkowski4313611133
WJan 23 · 12:05G. Poliniewicz47118116113M. Rutkowski4051161172
G. Poliniewicz10
LOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151LOct 2 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz1.80111101292K. Wisniewski1.914111210113LOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392WOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50781561K. Wloczko1.50111113113LOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980LOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191WOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113WOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 12:35M. Olbrycht1.9351111123G. Poliniewicz1.771168101
M. Rutkowski10
LOct 2 · 10:55K. Kapik1.951112113M. Rutkowski1.7771010LOct 2 · 09:20P. Jendrzejewski1.701111113M. Rutkowski2.055430WOct 2 · 07:40J. Zochniak2.5368120M. Rutkowski1.461111143WOct 2 · 06:50P. Jendrzejewski1.7511911592M. Rutkowski1.98911811113WOct 2 · 06:00M. Rutkowski1.85131157113K. Kapik1.85118111182LOct 2 · 04:25M. Rutkowski1.85511101162M. Kolek1.86119127113WOct 2 · 03:40K. Wisniewski1.859690M. Rutkowski1.851111113LOct 1 · 14:10M. Rutkowski3.009390K. Kolodziej1.361111113WOct 1 · 12:30L. Jarocki1.61791391M. Rutkowski2.20111111113WOct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40661191M. Rutkowski2.7511115113
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