TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Dawid Kosmal 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 12
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611115911––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Dawid Kosmal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 59.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 2–0 Dawid Kosmal Dawid Kosmal has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4659.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1690 vs Kosmal 1648
Staszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Kosmal 80%
Staszczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 100% vs Kosmal 80%
Staszczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +12 · Kosmal +1
Staszczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosmal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.571 / Kosmal 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Staszczyk)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222948
Staszczyk1.57
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 12
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 200 of 304
Up 2–0, closes it91% 85 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it84% 143 of 170
Kosmal2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStaszczyk2wins
AwayKosmal0wins
Staszczyk leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStaszczykKosmalS − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.530.5+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 417 vs 359 / 66658.3%53.9%243 / 417 vs 359 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.57/Kosmal 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kosmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 11 · 10:05K. Staszczyk4211128113D. Kosmal388101191
WMay 21 · 19:20K. Staszczyk331111113D. Kosmal238870
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 1 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.331111123J. Glanowski3.2587100WOct 1 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.40111110113A. Linek2.75641241WOct 1 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.281111113A. Mugowski3.504470WOct 1 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.369111211113P. Blocho3.0011314652WSep 30 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.637230K. Staszczyk1.441111113WSep 30 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5011611113K. Rudomina2.50611581WSep 30 · 21:50D. Solilo2.50711221K. Staszczyk1.5011911113WSep 30 · 19:40K. Staszczyk1.8011811113J. Zochniak1.91811761WSep 30 · 18:30K. Staszczyk1.7371311123P. Blocho2.0011115101WSep 30 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.44141111113B. Sulkowski2.63166641
D. Kosmal10
WOct 1 · 18:05D. Kosmal1.67121110113D. Solilo2.101091271LOct 1 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.501112981A. Mugowski2.5091411113WOct 1 · 15:45J. Glanowski2.001112781D. Kosmal1.7391411113WOct 1 · 14:40D. Kosmal1.651111133B. Czerwinski2.1078110WOct 1 · 13:05D. Kosmal1.40471112113A. Mugowski2.65111121092LOct 1 · 11:50D. Kosmal1.7671191162R. Stapor1.96119119113WOct 1 · 10:10D. Kosmal1.60411115113M. Minda2.2011471192WOct 1 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.6311811113J. Zochniak2.15511961WSep 26 · 14:35D. Kosmal1.6311121110113A. Wos2.1551451282WSep 26 · 13:00D. Kosmal1.4211112113B. Mleczko2.60691141
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
D. Kosmal
Oct 1 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.44A. Linek2.63—Oct 2 · 09:00D. Kosmal—K. Wisniewski——Oct 2 · 10:05D. Kosmal—P. Jendrzejewski——Oct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal—K. Kapik——Oct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal—G. Poliniewicz——Oct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal—M. Rutkowski——Oct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal—G. Kesik——Oct 2 · 17:20D. Kosmal—K. Staszczyk——Oct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal—S. Brud——Oct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal—M. Kukawka——
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