TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Kosmal vs Maciej Makajew 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181210––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched: 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeDawid Kosmal to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Kosmal above · Maciej Makajew below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Dawid Kosmal at 70.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Kosmal 4–0 Maciej Makajew Maciej Makajew has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:4070.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 4.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kosmal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Kosmal
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosmal 1699 vs Makajew 1452
Kosmal
Correct
both rated, 248 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosmal 80% vs Makajew 40%
Kosmal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosmal 70% vs Makajew 40%
Kosmal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosmal +2 · Makajew -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Kosmal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosmal 1.333 / Makajew 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kosmal)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228806
Kosmal1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 166 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it96% 89 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it84% 133 of 158
Makajew3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKosmal4wins
AwayMakajew0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKosmal leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosmal100%3 of 3
AwayMakajewn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosmal3Makajew1n = 4Kosmal took 3 of 4
S2Kosmal4Makajew0n = 4Kosmal took 4 of 4
S3Kosmal4Makajew0n = 4Kosmal took 4 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKosmalMakajewK − MBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.228.8+9.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosmalMakajewBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 666 vs 210 / 38554.1%54.6%360 / 666 vs 210 / 385Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosmalKosmal 1.33/Makajew 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Kosmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kosmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal341111123M. Makajew2578100
WAug 29 · 09:20D. Kosmal341111123M. Makajew2468100
WAug 29 · 05:35D. Kosmal331111113M. Makajew198830
WAug 28 · 03:40D. Kosmal52813119113M. Makajew47111191152
D. Kosmal10
WOct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.5711611113M. Kukawka2.25711751WOct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal1.5311163113S. Brud2.384141161LOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WOct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.00111411113M. Rutkowski1.72816791WOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151WOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040LOct 2 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.9511891182P. Jendrzejewski1.70611118113LOct 2 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.83981181K. Wisniewski1.8711116113WOct 1 · 19:40A. Linek2.638111081D. Kosmal1.4411512113
M. Makajew10
LOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890LOct 2 · 17:40M. Makajew2.2091080S. Brud1.611112113LOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WAug 29 · 14:35A. Wos1.95820881M. Makajew1.74111811113WAug 29 · 13:25M. Makajew2.10941111113K. Szurlej1.6011117962WAug 29 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.651212115102M. Makajew2.051014411123LAug 29 · 10:55D. Solilo2.05118911123M. Makajew1.65711119102LAug 29 · 09:20D. Kosmal1.521111123M. Makajew2.3068100LAug 29 · 08:05M. Makajew1.3561080A. Mugowski2.901112113
Upcoming Matches
D. Kosmal
Nothing scheduled
M. Makajew
Oct 2 · 22:30M. Makajew1.80G. Kesik1.91—Oct 2 · 23:15M. Makajew3.40K. Staszczyk1.30—Oct 2 · 23:55M. Makajew2.10S. Brud1.67—Oct 3 · 01:30M. Makajew1.83M. Kukawka1.83—Oct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew—M. Kukawka——Oct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 20:30M. Makajew—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 21:00M. Makajew—M. Kolek——
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