TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Maciej Makajew 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 11
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114711116117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:10 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Maciej Makajew below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 72.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 1–0 Maciej Makajew Maciej Makajew has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Staszczyk beat Makajew 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:1072.3%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 4.6pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1753 vs Makajew 1442
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 311 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Makajew 20%
Staszczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 100% vs Makajew 40%
Staszczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +11 · Makajew -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.30 / Makajew 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Staszczyk)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233132
Staszczyk1.30
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 11
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 208 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 150 of 177
Makajew3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStaszczyk1wins
AwayMakajew0wins
Staszczyk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStaszczykMakajewS − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.019.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykMakajewBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 429 vs 210 / 38659.2%54.4%254 / 429 vs 210 / 386Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.30/Makajew 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk331111113M. Makajew196940
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 3 · 00:20G. Kesik2.75413471K. Staszczyk1.40111111113WOct 2 · 23:35M. Kukawka2.3861270K. Staszczyk1.531114113WOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113WOct 2 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.3311811113G. Kesik3.25511881WOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192WOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WOct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo2.50106100K. Staszczyk1.501211123WOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113
M. Makajew10
LOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100LOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890LOct 2 · 17:40M. Makajew2.2091080S. Brud1.611112113LOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WAug 29 · 14:35A. Wos1.95820881M. Makajew1.74111811113WAug 29 · 13:25M. Makajew2.10941111113K. Szurlej1.6011117962
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
Nothing scheduled
M. Makajew
Oct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew—M. Kukawka——Oct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 20:30M. Makajew—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 21:00M. Makajew—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 22:10M. Makajew—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 22:35M. Makajew—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 23:20M. Makajew—M. Kukawka——
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