TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Milosz Kukawka 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115116711811119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Milosz Kukawka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 3-1
Point 74 set 5, 3-1 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 63.6%
74 points drawn · the score is 16 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 1–1 Milosz Kukawka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3563.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1737 vs Kukawka 1487
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Kukawka 60%
Staszczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 90% vs Kukawka 60%
Staszczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +7 · Kukawka -1
Staszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kukawka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.533 / Kukawka 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Staszczyk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232703
Staszczyk1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 208 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 150 of 177
Kukawka2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As underdog53% won 49 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back34% 18 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStaszczyk1wins
AwayKukawka1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStaszczykKukawkaS − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match48.050.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKukawkaBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 426 vs 509 / 81158.9%62.8%251 / 426 vs 509 / 811Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.53/Kukawka 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LMay 23 · 15:30K. Staszczyk4811129792M. Kukawka507101111113
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WOct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo2.50106100K. Staszczyk1.501211123WOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113WOct 1 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.4461111113A. Linek2.63116581WOct 1 · 21:00J. Glanowski3.256950K. Staszczyk1.331111113WOct 1 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.5011511113D. Solilo2.50811981LOct 1 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.57961191D. Kosmal2.2511115113WOct 1 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.331111123J. Glanowski3.2587100WOct 1 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.40111110113A. Linek2.75641241
M. Kukawka10
LOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka2.005770G. Kesik1.731111113WOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WOct 1 · 08:10M. Kukawka1.4511111110113K. Sulkowski2.5086131282LOct 1 · 06:40B. Warpas2.601111123M. Kukawka1.4286100WOct 1 · 06:00M. Minda1.909813131M. Kukawka1.80111111153LOct 1 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.55129611122R. Stapor2.251011114143WOct 1 · 03:50M. Kukawka1.273M. Lukaszewski3.350WSep 30 · 08:35M. Zwolinski3.3541190M. Kukawka1.231113113WSep 30 · 07:20M. Kukawka1.371111113K. Sulkowski2.808770LSep 30 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski3.601171411113M. Kukawka1.2561116772
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
M. Kukawka
Oct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.00S. Brud1.73—Oct 2 · 22:50M. Kukawka2.00G. Kesik1.73—Oct 2 · 23:35M. Kukawka2.38K. Staszczyk1.53—Oct 3 · 00:45M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83M. Makajew1.83—Oct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Kukawka—M. Makajew——Oct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 18:30M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 19:40M. Kukawka—B. Sulkowski——
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