TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Gracjan Kesik 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeGracjan Kesik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilosz Kukawka above · Gracjan Kesik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Gracjan Kesik at 54.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Milosz Kukawka 2–3 Gracjan Kesik Milosz Kukawka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5254.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kesik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1492 vs Kesik 1517
Kesik
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 60% vs Kesik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 60% vs Kesik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka +2 · Kesik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kesik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 2.00 / Kesik 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Kesik)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232319
Kukawka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As underdog53% won 49 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back34% 18 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Kesik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKukawka2wins
AwayKesik3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKesik leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKukawka66.7%2 of 3
AwayKesikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kukawka3Kesik2n = 5Kukawka took 3 of 5
S2Kukawka1Kesik4n = 5Kesik took 4 of 5
S3Kukawka1Kesik4n = 5Kesik took 4 of 5
S4Kukawka4Kesik0n = 4Kukawka took 4 of 4
S5Kukawka1Kesik2n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKukawkaKesikKukawka − KesikBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.439.8−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime509 / 810 vs 335 / 62262.8%53.9%509 / 810 vs 335 / 622Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KesikKukawka 2.00/Kesik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka195770G. Kesik331111113
WJun 12 · 12:35M. Kukawka4313811113G. Kesik331111291
LMay 3 · 15:55M. Kukawka4381191142G. Kesik43114116113
WMay 2 · 20:35M. Kukawka45113911113G. Kesik4261111682
LMar 13 · 17:00M. Kukawka42116101142G. Kesik48511129113
M. Kukawka10
LOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192WOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WOct 1 · 08:10M. Kukawka1.4511111110113K. Sulkowski2.5086131282LOct 1 · 06:40B. Warpas2.601111123M. Kukawka1.4286100WOct 1 · 06:00M. Minda1.909813131M. Kukawka1.80111111153LOct 1 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.55129611122R. Stapor2.251011114143WOct 1 · 03:50M. Kukawka1.273M. Lukaszewski3.350WSep 30 · 08:35M. Zwolinski3.3541190M. Kukawka1.231113113WSep 30 · 07:20M. Kukawka1.371111113K. Sulkowski2.808770LSep 30 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski3.601171411113M. Kukawka1.2561116772
G. Kesik10
LOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WSep 27 · 14:15G. Kesik1.911111113D. Wasilewski1.808590WSep 27 · 12:35D. Poloszczanski2.95911491G. Kesik1.3511911113LSep 27 · 11:45A. Wos2.52771111113G. Kesik1.4711115382WSep 27 · 10:55G. Kesik1.73511811143K. Kufel1.98115116122LSep 27 · 09:45G. Kesik1.8081611572B. Mleczko1.851114811113WSep 27 · 08:05D. Wasilewski1.84131181162G. Kesik1.88155117113WSep 27 · 07:15T. Pisarczyk2.8511712732G. Kesik1.355111011113LSep 27 · 05:15K. Kufel1.9011813113G. Kesik1.808111151LSep 27 · 04:25A. Wos1.551111113G. Kesik2.254530
Upcoming Matches
M. Kukawka
Oct 2 · 19:40M. Kukawka2.25D. Kosmal1.57—Oct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.00S. Brud1.73—Oct 2 · 22:50M. Kukawka2.00G. Kesik1.73—Oct 2 · 23:35M. Kukawka2.38K. Staszczyk1.53—Oct 3 · 00:45M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83M. Makajew1.83—Oct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Kukawka—M. Makajew——Oct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 18:30M. Kukawka—S. Brud——
G. Kesik
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