TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Gracjan Kesik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811118118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:44 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Gracjan Kesik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 73.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 3–1 Gracjan Kesik Gracjan Kesik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:4473.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Staszczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1743 vs Kesik 1488
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 255 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Kesik 40%
Staszczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 90% vs Kesik 50%
Staszczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +9 · Kesik -2
Staszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.333 / Kesik 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Staszczyk)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232696
Staszczyk1.33
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 208 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 150 of 177
Kesik3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 59 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back32% 23 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStaszczyk3wins
AwayKesik1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayKesikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk3Kesik1n = 4Staszczyk took 3 of 4
S2Staszczyk1Kesik3n = 4Kesik took 3 of 4
S3Staszczyk3Kesik1n = 4Staszczyk took 3 of 4
S4Staszczyk2Kesik2n = 4split evenly
S5Staszczyk2Kesik1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaszczykKesikS − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match46.041.2+4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 427 vs 335 / 62459%53.7%252 / 427 vs 335 / 624Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.33/Kesik 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk46119113122G. Kesik47711411143
WMay 31 · 13:50K. Staszczyk46411119113G. Kesik4211581172
WMay 31 · 08:35K. Staszczyk53119811143G. Kesik49911116122
WMay 30 · 13:25K. Staszczyk3911611113G. Kesik27511921
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113WOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192WOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WOct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo2.50106100K. Staszczyk1.501211123WOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113WOct 1 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.4461111113A. Linek2.63116581WOct 1 · 21:00J. Glanowski3.256950K. Staszczyk1.331111113WOct 1 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.5011511113D. Solilo2.50811981
G. Kesik10
LOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123LOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890WOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka2.005770G. Kesik1.731111113LOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WSep 27 · 14:15G. Kesik1.911111113D. Wasilewski1.808590WSep 27 · 12:35D. Poloszczanski2.95911491G. Kesik1.3511911113LSep 27 · 11:45A. Wos2.52771111113G. Kesik1.4711115382WSep 27 · 10:55G. Kesik1.73511811143K. Kufel1.98115116122LSep 27 · 09:45G. Kesik1.8081611572B. Mleczko1.851114811113WSep 27 · 08:05D. Wasilewski1.84131181162G. Kesik1.88155117113
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