TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Konrad Staszczyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111214711––––
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 12
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:33 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilosz Kukawka above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 61 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 63.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Milosz Kukawka 1–1 Konrad Staszczyk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Staszczyk beat Kukawka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3363.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1482 vs Staszczyk 1757
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 274 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 20% vs Staszczyk 100%
Staszczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 40% vs Staszczyk 100%
Staszczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka -1 · Staszczyk +12
Staszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 2.375 / Staszczyk 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Staszczyk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232610
Kukawka2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 49 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back34% 18 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Staszczyk1.53
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 12
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 208 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 150 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKukawka1wins
AwayStaszczyk1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKukawkaStaszczykK − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.048.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime510 / 814 vs 255 / 43062.7%59.3%510 / 814 vs 255 / 430Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykKukawka 2.38/Staszczyk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 2 · 18:50M. Kukawka4256111192K. Staszczyk48111178113
WMay 23 · 15:30M. Kukawka507101111113K. Staszczyk4811129792
M. Kukawka10
WOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 22:50G. Kesik1.73712118113M. Kukawka2.00111041152WOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112LOct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.5711611113M. Kukawka2.25711751LOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192LOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka2.005770G. Kesik1.731111113WOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WOct 1 · 08:10M. Kukawka1.4511111110113K. Sulkowski2.5086131282LOct 1 · 06:40B. Warpas2.601111123M. Kukawka1.4286100
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 3 · 00:20G. Kesik2.75413471K. Staszczyk1.40111111113WOct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.3011711113M. Makajew3.40411671WOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113WOct 2 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.3311811113G. Kesik3.25511881WOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192WOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WOct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo2.50106100K. Staszczyk1.501211123WOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kukawka
Oct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Kukawka—M. Makajew——Oct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 18:30M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 19:40M. Kukawka—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 21:25M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 21:50M. Kukawka—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 23:20M. Kukawka—M. Makajew——Oct 4 · 00:10M. Kukawka—M. Kolek——
K. Staszczyk
Nothing scheduled
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