TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Gracjan Kesik vs Milosz Kukawka 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111210114811115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeGracjan Kesik to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGracjan Kesik above · Milosz Kukawka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Gracjan Kesik at 54.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Gracjan Kesik 3–2 Milosz Kukawka Milosz Kukawka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kesik beat Kukawka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:4654.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kesik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1484 vs Kukawka 1494
Kukawka
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 20% vs Kukawka 40%
Kukawka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 40% vs Kukawka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -3 · Kukawka +1
Kesik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kesik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kesik form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 1.727 / Kukawka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kesik)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232737
Kesik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Kukawka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog53% won 49 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back34% 18 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKesik3wins
AwayKukawka2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKesik leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKukawka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik2Kukawka3n = 5Kukawka took 3 of 5
S2Kesik4Kukawka1n = 5Kesik took 4 of 5
S3Kesik4Kukawka1n = 5Kesik took 4 of 5
S4Kesik0Kukawka4n = 4Kukawka took 4 of 4
S5Kesik2Kukawka1n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKesikKukawkaKesik − KukawkaBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.838.4+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikKukawkaBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 625 vs 510 / 81353.6%62.7%335 / 625 vs 510 / 813Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KesikKesik 1.73/Kukawka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 2 · 18:05G. Kesik331111113M. Kukawka195770
LJun 12 · 12:35G. Kesik331111291M. Kukawka4313811113
WMay 3 · 15:55G. Kesik43114116113M. Kukawka4381191142
LMay 2 · 20:35G. Kesik4261111682M. Kukawka45113911113
WMar 13 · 17:00G. Kesik48511129113M. Kukawka42116101142
G. Kesik10
WOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181LOct 3 · 00:20G. Kesik2.75413471K. Staszczyk1.40111111113WOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.3311811113G. Kesik3.25511881LOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123LOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890WOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka2.005770G. Kesik1.731111113LOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WSep 27 · 14:15G. Kesik1.911111113D. Wasilewski1.808590WSep 27 · 12:35D. Poloszczanski2.95911491G. Kesik1.3511911113
M. Kukawka10
WOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 23:35M. Kukawka2.3861270K. Staszczyk1.531114113WOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112LOct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.5711611113M. Kukawka2.25711751LOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192LOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka2.005770G. Kesik1.731111113WOct 2 · 16:55M. Kukawka1.831111113M. Makajew1.838490WOct 1 · 08:10M. Kukawka1.4511111110113K. Sulkowski2.5086131282LOct 1 · 06:40B. Warpas2.601111123M. Kukawka1.4286100
Upcoming Matches
G. Kesik
Nothing scheduled
M. Kukawka
Oct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka—M. Kolek——Oct 3 · 16:05M. Kukawka—M. Makajew——Oct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka—R. Stapor——Oct 3 · 18:30M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 19:40M. Kukawka—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 21:25M. Kukawka—S. Brud——Oct 3 · 21:50M. Kukawka—B. Sulkowski——Oct 3 · 23:20M. Kukawka—M. Makajew——Oct 4 · 00:10M. Kukawka—M. Kolek——
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