TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Gracjan Kesik vs Konrad Staszczyk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111311411711––
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 13
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:11 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGracjan Kesik above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 70.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Gracjan Kesik 1–4 Konrad Staszczyk Gracjan Kesik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Staszczyk beat Kesik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1170.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Staszczyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1504 vs Staszczyk 1762
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 40% vs Staszczyk 100%
Staszczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 50% vs Staszczyk 100%
Staszczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik +2 · Staszczyk +13
Staszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 2.75 / Staszczyk 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Staszczyk)-0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13232335
Kesik2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 59 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back32% 23 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Staszczyk1.40
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 13
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite67% won 208 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 150 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKesik1wins
AwayStaszczyk4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStaszczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik1Staszczyk4n = 5Staszczyk took 4 of 5
S2Kesik4Staszczyk1n = 5Kesik took 4 of 5
S3Kesik1Staszczyk4n = 5Staszczyk took 4 of 5
S4Kesik2Staszczyk3n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S5Kesik1Staszczyk2n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKesikStaszczykK − SBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match39.445.0−5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 627 vs 256 / 43153.8%59.4%337 / 627 vs 256 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykKesik 2.75/Staszczyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 2 · 21:45G. Kesik32511881K. Staszczyk4111811113
WSep 13 · 16:30G. Kesik47711411143K. Staszczyk46119113122
LMay 31 · 13:50G. Kesik4211581172K. Staszczyk46411119113
LMay 31 · 08:35G. Kesik49911116122K. Staszczyk53119811143
LMay 30 · 13:25G. Kesik27511921K. Staszczyk3911611113
G. Kesik10
WOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181WOct 2 · 22:50G. Kesik1.73712118113M. Kukawka2.00111041152WOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.3311811113G. Kesik3.25511881LOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123LOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890WOct 2 · 18:05M. Kukawka2.005770G. Kesik1.731111113LOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WSep 27 · 14:15G. Kesik1.911111113D. Wasilewski1.808590WSep 27 · 12:35D. Poloszczanski2.95911491G. Kesik1.3511911113
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 2 · 23:35M. Kukawka2.3861270K. Staszczyk1.531114113WOct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.3011711113M. Makajew3.40411671WOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113WOct 2 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.3311811113G. Kesik3.25511881WOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.53111178113M. Kukawka2.3856111192WOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.441111113S. Brud2.636550WOct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo2.50106100K. Staszczyk1.501211123WOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113
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