TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Brud vs Maciej Kolek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117311811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Brud above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Maciej Kolek at 62.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Brud 13–17 Maciej Kolek Szymon Brud has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4662.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Kolek
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1475 vs Kolek 1637
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 20% vs Kolek 40%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 30% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud +1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 2.25 / Kolek 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Kolek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233821
Brud2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back25% 20 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Kolek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 258 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 86 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 239
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrud4wins
AwayKolek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrud75%3 of 4
AwayKolek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Brud5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Brud5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S4Brud5Kolek4n = 9Brud took 5 of 9
S5Brud1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrudKolekB − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.3−2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1113 vs 754 / 149752.7%50.4%587 / 1113 vs 754 / 1497Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekBrud 2.25/Kolek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 06:00S. Brud50811171132M. Kolek56117198113
LJun 19 · 14:35S. Brud31571181M. Kolek4211119113
WJun 14 · 07:55S. Brud4291111113M. Kolek37119981
LMay 20 · 18:30S. Brud34117971M. Kolek4181111113
LMay 6 · 04:20S. Brud4081141162M. Kolek49118118113
WApr 29 · 08:35S. Brud351111133M. Kolek2458110
WApr 23 · 16:15S. Brud50118811123M. Kolek46711117102
LApr 21 · 18:30S. Brud316101141M. Kolek4211128113
LApr 17 · 14:20S. Brud356111081M. Kolek4211812113
WMar 22 · 20:30S. Brud3911511123M. Kolek346117101
S. Brud10
WOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113WOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud1.441111113B. Sulkowski2.639750LOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181LOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113LOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112WOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123LOct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal1.5311163113S. Brud2.384141161WOct 2 · 17:40M. Makajew2.2091080S. Brud1.611112113
M. Kolek10
WOct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka2.50119681M. Kolek1.5091111113LOct 2 · 08:05K. Wisniewski1.7512115113M. Kolek1.951081181LOct 2 · 07:15K. Kapik1.551111113M. Kolek2.258960LOct 2 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.901111123M. Kolek1.7588100WOct 2 · 04:25M. Rutkowski1.85511101162M. Kolek1.86119127113WOct 2 · 03:00P. Jendrzejewski1.6011116892M. Kolek2.15771111113LOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 13:25P. Jendrzejewski1.651111113M. Kolek2.104980WOct 1 · 11:20M. Olbrycht1.71810111182M. Kolek2.00111289113LOct 1 · 10:30K. Kapik1.5011126113M. Kolek2.506101171
Upcoming Matches
S. Brud
Oct 3 · 18:30S. Brud2.10M. Kukawka1.67—Oct 3 · 20:05S. Brud1.61R. Stapor2.20—Oct 3 · 21:25S. Brud2.10M. Kukawka1.67—Oct 3 · 22:10S. Brud—M. Makajew——Oct 3 · 22:55S. Brud2.00M. Kolek1.73—Oct 4 · 00:35S. Brud1.50B. Sulkowski2.50—Oct 4 · 15:25S. Brud—K. Kapik——Oct 4 · 16:55S. Brud—J. Zochniak——Oct 4 · 18:05S. Brud—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 19:15S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——
M. Kolek
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