TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Makajew vs Bartosz Sulkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119611119411
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Makajew to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Makajew above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Maciej Makajew at 57.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Makajew 4–2 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4857.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Makajew
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Makajew
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makajew 1407 vs Sulkowski 1463
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makajew 40% vs Sulkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makajew 30% vs Sulkowski 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makajew -2 · Sulkowski -3
Sulkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Makajew) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makajew form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakajew 1.666 / Sulkowski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Makajew)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13234065
Makajew1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 22 of 32
Sulkowski2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog34% won 158 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back18% 49 of 279
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMakajew4wins
AwaySulkowski2wins
Makajew leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakajew100%3 of 3
AwaySulkowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makajew3Sulkowski3n = 6split evenly
S2Makajew5Sulkowski1n = 6Makajew took 5 of 6
S3Makajew2Sulkowski4n = 6Sulkowski took 4 of 6
S4Makajew3Sulkowski1n = 4Makajew took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMakajewSulkowskiM − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.735.2+4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakajewSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 389 vs 599 / 134153.7%44.7%209 / 389 vs 599 / 1341Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MakajewMakajew 1.67/Sulkowski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Makajew · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WMar 27 · 02:25M. Makajew49161111113B. Sulkowski36186841
WMar 26 · 23:55M. Makajew4211119113B. Sulkowski30841171
LMar 26 · 21:05M. Makajew366111091B. Sulkowski4311912113
WFeb 15 · 02:05M. Makajew4311138113B. Sulkowski367111171
WFeb 14 · 23:40M. Makajew361112133B. Sulkowski28710110
LFeb 14 · 21:35M. Makajew32913100B. Sulkowski381115123
M. Makajew10
LOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113LOct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew2.00212691M. Kukawka1.73111011113WOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101LOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.3011711113M. Makajew3.40411671LOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100LOct 2 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.331111113M. Makajew3.256940WOct 2 · 19:15M. Makajew1.731111113G. Kesik2.007890
B. Sulkowski10
LOct 3 · 18:05B. Sulkowski2.6381080M. Kolek1.441112113LOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113LOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud1.441111113B. Sulkowski2.639750WOct 2 · 00:35B. Sulkowski1.9111911123A. Linek1.808117101WOct 1 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.801191191B. Sulkowski1.9191113113LOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113LOct 1 · 21:50D. Solilo1.50117113143B. Sulkowski2.50511411122LOct 1 · 00:10D. Solilo1.5713511113B. Sulkowski2.251111771LSep 30 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.637230K. Staszczyk1.441111113LSep 30 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.207780P. Blocho1.611111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Makajew
B. Sulkowski
Oct 3 · 21:50B. Sulkowski—M. Kukawka——Oct 3 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.00M. Makajew1.73—Oct 3 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.63M. Kolek1.44—Oct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski2.50S. Brud1.50—Oct 4 · 15:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Oct 4 · 16:30B. Sulkowski—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 17:20B. Sulkowski—K. Kapik——Oct 4 · 19:15B. Sulkowski—S. Brud——Oct 4 · 20:05B. Sulkowski—J. Zochniak——Oct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——
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