TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Brud vs Rafal Stapor 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511118911116117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeSzymon Brud to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Brud above · Rafal Stapor below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Szymon Brud at 59.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Brud 3–0 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0059.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Brud
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Brud
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1499 vs Stapor 1431
Brud
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 60% vs Stapor 40%
Brud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 40% vs Stapor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud +2 · Stapor -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Brud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 1.571 / Stapor 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Brud)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233818
Brud1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 135 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it90% 56 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it76% 87 of 114
Stapor2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 110 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back16% 31 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrud3wins
AwayStapor0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBrud leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud1Stapor2n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
S2Brud3Stapor0n = 3Brud took 3 of 3
S3Brud2Stapor1n = 3Brud took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrudStaporB − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.736.0+6.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 1114 vs 718 / 127652.9%56.3%589 / 1114 vs 718 / 1276Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrudBrud 1.57/Stapor 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Brud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 3 · 20:05S. Brud47511911113R. Stapor4311811672
WSep 2 · 10:35S. Brud331111113R. Stapor199730
WAug 29 · 15:00S. Brud48711118113R. Stapor4611871192
S. Brud10
WOct 3 · 18:30M. Kukawka1.6713412992S. Brud2.1011111011113WOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113LOct 3 · 16:55S. Brud2.25711381M. Kolek1.5711711113WOct 3 · 15:45S. Brud1.441111113B. Sulkowski2.639750LOct 3 · 01:10G. Kesik2.3811116113S. Brud1.53881181LOct 3 · 00:45S. Brud1.83881491M. Kukawka1.83111112113LOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 22:05S. Brud2.751011551K. Staszczyk1.4012611113LOct 2 · 21:20M. Kukawka2.001271111133S. Brud1.73141155112WOct 2 · 20:30G. Kesik2.385119101S. Brud1.5311811123
R. Stapor10
LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kolek1.33911711113R. Stapor3.2511911492LOct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.801111113R. Stapor1.913780WOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113LOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101WOct 2 · 07:40R. Stapor1.66121011113F. Krcil2.101012771LOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113WOct 2 · 05:15R. Stapor1.361111113M. Lukaszewski2.953980LOct 2 · 04:10B. Warpas2.35131111113R. Stapor1.53158981WOct 2 · 03:25R. Stapor2.55114311113J. Przewlocki1.4611111542LOct 1 · 14:20R. Stapor2.403780J. Zochniak1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
S. Brud
Oct 3 · 21:25S. Brud1.91M. Kukawka1.80—Oct 3 · 22:10S. Brud1.73M. Makajew2.00—Oct 3 · 22:55S. Brud2.10M. Kolek1.67—Oct 4 · 00:35S. Brud1.50B. Sulkowski2.50—Oct 4 · 15:25S. Brud—K. Kapik——Oct 4 · 16:55S. Brud—J. Zochniak——Oct 4 · 18:05S. Brud—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 19:15S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 20:30S. Brud—L. Pietraszko——Oct 4 · 21:25S. Brud—J. Nadolny——
R. Stapor
Oct 3 · 21:55R. Stapor1.41K. Sulkowski2.60—Oct 3 · 22:35R. Stapor1.71A. Mugowski2.00—Oct 3 · 23:45R. Stapor—M. Trela——Oct 4 · 00:35R. Stapor—D. Poloszczanski——Oct 4 · 15:25R. Stapor—M. Kukawka——Oct 4 · 16:55R. Stapor—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 18:10R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor—J. Glanowski——Oct 4 · 20:30R. Stapor—K. Rudomina——Oct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——
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