TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Rafal Stapor 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119711114119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched: 74.1% is still 74.1%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
74.1%
74.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Rafal Stapor below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Maciej Kolek at 74.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 7–6 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1174.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.9pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1651 vs Stapor 1446
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 206 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Stapor 40%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 50% vs Stapor 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +3 · Stapor -1
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.333 / Stapor 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Kolek)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13238098
Kolek1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 258 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 86 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 239
Stapor3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 110 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back16% 31 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek5wins
AwayStapor5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek71.4%5 of 7
AwayStapor100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek7Stapor3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S2Kolek6Stapor4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek6Stapor4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Kolek3Stapor5n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S5Kolek1Stapor3n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekStaporK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.739.4+1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime756 / 1499 vs 718 / 127450.4%56.4%756 / 1499 vs 718 / 1274Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.33/Stapor 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 13:05M. Kolek45115117113R. Stapor3881141142
WSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek4012115123R. Stapor4010911101
LSep 2 · 00:35M. Kolek44121151062R. Stapor531091112113
LSep 1 · 00:35M. Kolek31711671R. Stapor4111811113
WAug 13 · 10:10M. Kolek4211119113R. Stapor33881161
WAug 13 · 06:40M. Kolek371111153R. Stapor2355130
LAug 12 · 12:15M. Kolek4311712582R. Stapor507111011113
LAug 4 · 04:50M. Kolek32891141R. Stapor3911116113
WJul 19 · 12:10M. Kolek331111113R. Stapor185760
LJul 12 · 10:55M. Kolek601112111792R. Stapor591314615113
M. Kolek10
WOct 3 · 18:05B. Sulkowski2.6381080M. Kolek1.441112113WOct 3 · 16:55S. Brud2.25711381M. Kolek1.5711711113WOct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka2.50119681M. Kolek1.5091111113LOct 2 · 08:05K. Wisniewski1.7512115113M. Kolek1.951081181LOct 2 · 07:15K. Kapik1.551111113M. Kolek2.258960LOct 2 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.901111123M. Kolek1.7588100WOct 2 · 04:25M. Rutkowski1.85511101162M. Kolek1.86119127113WOct 2 · 03:00P. Jendrzejewski1.6011116892M. Kolek2.15771111113LOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 13:25P. Jendrzejewski1.651111113M. Kolek2.104980
R. Stapor10
LOct 3 · 20:05S. Brud1.57511911113R. Stapor2.2511811672LOct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.801111113R. Stapor1.913780WOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113LOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101WOct 2 · 07:40R. Stapor1.66121011113F. Krcil2.101012771LOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113WOct 2 · 05:15R. Stapor1.361111113M. Lukaszewski2.953980LOct 2 · 04:10B. Warpas2.35131111113R. Stapor1.53158981WOct 2 · 03:25R. Stapor2.55114311113J. Przewlocki1.4611111542LOct 1 · 14:20R. Stapor2.403780J. Zochniak1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
R. Stapor
Oct 3 · 21:55R. Stapor1.41K. Sulkowski2.60—Oct 3 · 22:35R. Stapor1.71A. Mugowski2.00—Oct 3 · 23:45R. Stapor—M. Trela——Oct 4 · 00:35R. Stapor—D. Poloszczanski——Oct 4 · 15:25R. Stapor—M. Kukawka——Oct 4 · 16:55R. Stapor—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 18:10R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor—J. Glanowski——Oct 4 · 20:30R. Stapor—K. Rudomina——Oct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——
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