TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Kapik vs Bartosz Sulkowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched: 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 81.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 17–3 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 3 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0981.3%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 7.6pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-3 in 20
Kapik
Correct
gap of 14 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1678 vs Sulkowski 1456
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 222 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Sulkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 50% vs Sulkowski 30%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -1 · Sulkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.125 / Sulkowski 5.50
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Kapik)-7.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239377
Kapik1.13
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite61% won 217 of 356
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it77% 146 of 190
Sulkowski5.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 160 of 479
Down 0–1, comes back17% 49 of 284
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik7wins
AwaySulkowski3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik100%6 of 6
AwaySulkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik6Sulkowski4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S2Kapik8Sulkowski2n = 10Kapik took 8 of 10
S3Kapik6Sulkowski4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S4Kapik4Sulkowski2n = 6Kapik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikSulkowskiK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.930.1+4.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1110 / 2089 vs 602 / 134953.1%44.6%1110 / 2089 vs 602 / 1349Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.13/Sulkowski 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 00:35K. Kapik3511211113B. Sulkowski34811781
LMay 25 · 04:35K. Kapik217770B. Sulkowski331111113
LMay 20 · 00:15K. Kapik46111111672B. Sulkowski46136511113
WMay 19 · 21:50K. Kapik331111113B. Sulkowski156810
WMay 14 · 23:50K. Kapik331111113B. Sulkowski218670
WMay 14 · 21:30K. Kapik3912115113B. Sulkowski321041171
WMay 14 · 19:25K. Kapik331111113B. Sulkowski209650
WMay 7 · 18:15K. Kapik3831113113B. Sulkowski361171171
LMay 6 · 17:25K. Kapik31711581B. Sulkowski3911611113
WApr 30 · 17:00K. Kapik4011117113B. Sulkowski25611171
K. Kapik10
LOct 4 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.00144611113K. Kapik1.73121111452WOct 4 · 15:25K. Kapik1.401113113S. Brud2.7571180LOct 4 · 14:35P. David1.171111113K. Kapik4.507670WOct 4 · 13:20K. Kapik1.833K. Wisniewski1.831LOct 4 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.251211113K. Kapik3.7510320LOct 4 · 10:50D. Kostal2.0071112113K. Kapik1.731171041WOct 4 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.731012111162K. Kapik2.00121458113WOct 2 · 14:15K. Kapik2.00101111123K. Wisniewski1.701287101WOct 2 · 12:35P. Jendrzejewski1.9068100K. Kapik1.801111123LOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040
B. Sulkowski10
WOct 4 · 16:30J. Nadolny1.2213118562B. Sulkowski4.001171111113LOct 4 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.61711113113B. Sulkowski2.2011761142WOct 4 · 00:35B. Sulkowski2.6311711113S. Brud1.44211671LOct 3 · 23:45M. Kolek1.4011118113B. Sulkowski2.75461171LOct 3 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.001081151M. Makajew1.7312116113LOct 3 · 21:50M. Kukawka1.801111113B. Sulkowski1.866880LOct 3 · 19:40M. Kukawka2.2011713113B. Sulkowski1.619111171WOct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew1.6781161142B. Sulkowski2.10119119113LOct 3 · 18:05B. Sulkowski2.6381080M. Kolek1.441112113LOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik
B. Sulkowski
Oct 4 · 19:15B. Sulkowski2.25S. Brud1.57—Oct 4 · 20:05B. Sulkowski2.25J. Zochniak1.57—Oct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.20L. Pietraszko1.61—Oct 4 · 22:55B. Sulkowski—J. Nadolny——Oct 4 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.10M. Kukawka1.67—Oct 5 · 00:10B. Sulkowski2.25S. Brud1.57—Oct 5 · 09:25B. Sulkowski—M. Zwolinski——Oct 5 · 11:00B. Sulkowski—M. Kolek——Oct 5 · 12:15B. Sulkowski—J. Zochniak——Oct 5 · 13:30B. Sulkowski—D. Solilo——
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