TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Sobel vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811115116112––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:29 and never touched: 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
811115116112––
H2H Artur Sobel 5–1 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2982.7%Our read86.2%to break even at 1.16
short by 3.5pp86.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.16 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.16 (79%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Sobel
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1565 vs Lukaszewski 1214
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 351 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 40% vs Lukaszewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 50% vs Lukaszewski 30%
Sobel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel -1 · Lukaszewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Sobel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.16 / Lukaszewski 4.35
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Sobel)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246625
Sobel1.16
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite63% won 177 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it79% 123 of 155
Lukaszewski4.35
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 249 of 618
Down 0–1, comes back13% 44 of 336
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSobel5wins
AwayLukaszewski1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderSobel leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel83.3%5 of 6
AwayLukaszewskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel6Lukaszewski0n = 6Sobel took 6 of 6
S2Sobel4Lukaszewski2n = 6Sobel took 4 of 6
S3Sobel4Lukaszewski2n = 6Sobel took 4 of 6
S4Sobel1Lukaszewski2n = 3Lukaszewski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSobelLukaszewskiS − LBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set60+6of 6Avg pointsper match37.830.3+7.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1183 vs 900 / 198054.6%45.5%646 / 1183 vs 900 / 1980Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobelSobel 1.16/Lukaszewski 4.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 22 · 03:00A. Sobel36118981M. Lukaszewski3961111113
WSep 21 · 04:30A. Sobel46117125113M. Lukaszewski46811101162
WAug 4 · 08:10A. Sobel351113113M. Lukaszewski2671180
WMar 6 · 15:40A. Sobel341112113M. Lukaszewski2261060
WJul 15 · 09:25A. Sobel43111110113M. Lukaszewski28381251
WJun 16 · 06:30A. Sobel331111113M. Lukaszewski218490
A. Sobel10
LOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel1.9811881192M. Kolek1.65711118113LOct 5 · 03:50B. Warpas3.231111113A. Sobel1.305680WSep 29 · 13:55A. Sobel1.80101111113D. Solilo1.91125141WSep 29 · 12:40A. Sobel1.3761111113J. Krawczyk2.70118971LSep 29 · 11:25A. Sobel1.53711861M. Minda2.3511611113LSep 29 · 10:10M. Kolek1.651111108133A. Sobel2.05591211112WSep 29 · 09:25A. Sobel1.37121111113F. Krcil2.75144521LSep 29 · 08:35A. Sobel1.9041090B. Czerwinski1.801112113WSep 29 · 06:55A. Sobel2.0371111113F. Krcil1.71117871LSep 29 · 05:40A. Sobel1.576770M. Minda2.201111113
M. Lukaszewski10
LOct 5 · 05:15B. Wisniewski1.90111111113M. Lukaszewski1.75136991WOct 5 · 03:00M. Zwolinski1.8081280M. Lukaszewski1.911114113LOct 4 · 07:40M. Lukaszewski1.87111091162B. Wisniewski1.83612115113LOct 4 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski2.3041060W. Iwasyszyn1.551112113LOct 4 · 05:15M. Lukaszewski1.9596130P. Krukar1.751111153WOct 4 · 04:10A. Szoltysek1.8511116772M. Lukaszewski1.85871111113LOct 4 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski2.00381141A. Eliasz1.7111117113LOct 3 · 14:15M. Lukaszewski2.051451151M. Skorski1.7016119113LOct 3 · 12:35T. Piotrowski1.621111113M. Lukaszewski2.189710WOct 3 · 11:45K. Makowski1.7510960M. Lukaszewski1.901211113
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