TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Sobel vs Maciej Kolek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119611119––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
117119611119––
H2H Artur Sobel 10–13 Maciej Kolek Artur Sobel has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kolek beat Sobel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4955.9%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 4.7pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1588 vs Kolek 1666
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 80% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 70% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +4 · Kolek +1
Sobel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 2.10 / Kolek 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kolek)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248266
Sobel2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Kolek1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 263 of 424
Up 2–0, closes it94% 91 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it81% 198 of 244
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel3wins
AwayKolek7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel37.5%3 of 8
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel8Kolek2n = 10Sobel took 8 of 10
S2Sobel3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S3Sobel4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Sobel6Kolek4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S5Sobel1Kolek6n = 7Kolek took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelKolekS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.443.5−0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 1189 vs 766 / 151154.8%50.7%651 / 1189 vs 766 / 1511Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekSobel 2.10/Kolek 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel4711881192M. Kolek48711118113
LSep 29 · 10:10A. Sobel48591211112M. Kolek531111108133
WSep 28 · 13:05A. Sobel47111177113M. Kolek4076111152
LAug 31 · 08:05A. Sobel50111011992M. Kolek52912911113
WAug 10 · 08:30A. Sobel4111118113M. Kolek28671141
LJul 21 · 13:05A. Sobel26511461M. Kolek3911611113
LJul 7 · 09:00A. Sobel46116711112M. Kolek49511119133
LJun 9 · 11:50A. Sobel3911211872M. Kolek49811811113
LJun 9 · 06:55A. Sobel4811991182M. Kolek47711117113
WJun 8 · 09:00A. Sobel4211911113M. Kolek30711571
A. Sobel10
WOct 5 · 13:05A. Sobel1.85911119113J. Zochniak1.8511641142WOct 5 · 10:10A. Sobel1.1911711113M. Zwolinski4.30511981WOct 5 · 09:00A. Sobel1.85171111113D. Solilo1.85194761WOct 5 · 07:40B. Wisniewski6.009890A. Sobel1.111111113WOct 5 · 06:55M. Zwolinski4.10671161A. Sobel1.1811116113LOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel1.9811881192M. Kolek1.65711118113WOct 5 · 04:30A. Sobel1.1681111113M. Lukaszewski4.35115621LOct 5 · 03:50B. Warpas3.231111113A. Sobel1.305680WSep 29 · 13:55A. Sobel1.80101111113D. Solilo1.91125141WSep 29 · 12:40A. Sobel1.3761111113J. Krawczyk2.70118971
M. Kolek10
WOct 5 · 12:40M. Zwolinski4.6081313111M. Kolek1.14111511133WOct 5 · 11:00M. Kolek1.46117119113B. Sulkowski2.5071161192LOct 5 · 09:50M. Kolek2.1211117992J. Zochniak1.65681111113WOct 5 · 08:35M. Zwolinski5.101159111M. Kolek1.1271111133WOct 5 · 07:20M. Kolek1.091111113M. Lukaszewski5.905550WOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel1.9811881192M. Kolek1.65711118113WOct 5 · 04:55B. Warpas4.006680M. Kolek1.221111113WOct 5 · 03:25B. Wisniewski5.0071480M. Kolek1.151116113WOct 4 · 00:10M. Kukawka2.63580M. Kolek1.4411112WOct 3 · 23:45M. Kolek1.4011118113B. Sulkowski2.75461171
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