TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zbynek Pagac vs Jiri Holubec 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611131110121151012
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Jiri Holubec below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Zbynek Pagac at 62.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 4–1 Jiri Holubec Jiri Holubec has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5762.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pagac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1602 vs Holubec 1594
Pagac
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 80% vs Holubec 20%
Pagac
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 40% vs Holubec 20%
Pagac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +2 · Holubec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Pagac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holubec form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.571 / Holubec 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Pagac)-0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13244039
Pagac1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 112 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it78% 74 of 95
Holubec2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 8 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back30% 3 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePagac4wins
AwayHolubec1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPagac leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHolubec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac2Holubec3n = 5Holubec took 3 of 5
S2Pagac5Holubec0n = 5Pagac took 5 of 5
S3Pagac4Holubec1n = 5Pagac took 4 of 5
S4Pagac1Holubec2n = 3Holubec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPagacHolubecP − HBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.633.0+6.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacHolubecBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 700 vs 47 / 10147.4%46.5%332 / 700 vs 47 / 101Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.57/Holubec 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holubec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WMay 25 · 14:00Z. Pagac44101112113J. Holubec351261071
WApr 26 · 16:00Z. Pagac331111113J. Holubec247890
WApr 25 · 16:00Z. Pagac351112123J. Holubec23310100
LMar 27 · 17:58Z. Pagac3810123131J. Holubec48121011153
WMar 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac48811117113J. Holubec3511651122
Z. Pagac10
WOct 5 · 14:00D. Langer2.388460Z. Pagac1.531111113WSep 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig2.008850Z. Pagac1.731111113LSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.5061090D. Unzeitig2.501112113WSep 27 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2012811113T. Kypr1.611011961WSep 27 · 14:00D. Szotek1.73411761Z. Pagac2.0011911113LSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181LSep 26 · 20:30T. Kypr1.831111113Z. Pagac1.833980LSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:30D. Szotek1.7311411113Z. Pagac2.00611781LSep 24 · 20:58D. Szotek1.7311127113Z. Pagac2.006101171
J. Holubec10
LOct 5 · 16:00D. Langer1.831116133J. Holubec1.83714110WOct 5 · 14:30J. Holubec1.731116113D. Unzeitig2.0081490LSep 30 · 17:10D. Unzeitig1.7391111113J. Holubec2.00117671LSep 30 · 16:00M. Holub1.80911119133J. Holubec1.91119811112LSep 30 · 15:00D. Unzeitig2.25117811133J. Holubec1.57911111112LSep 30 · 14:30J. Holubec1.61111110772J. Simecek2.20491211113LSep 20 · 16:58J. Holubec1.9191111182J. Stolfa1.80114113113LSep 20 · 16:00J. Holubec1.401111117102D. Tuma2.75771311123WSep 20 · 15:30T. Holik2.5081181182J. Holubec1.50113118113LSep 20 · 14:00J. Holubec1.57881181J. Stolfa2.2511116113
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