TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zbynek Pagac vs Daniel Unzeitig 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9117111412711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Daniel Unzeitig below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 82 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Zbynek Pagac at 64.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 33–10 Daniel Unzeitig Daniel Unzeitig has won 10 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2264.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pagac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-10 in 43
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 23 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1591 vs Unzeitig 1621
Unzeitig
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 60% vs Unzeitig 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 40% vs Unzeitig 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -1 · Unzeitig +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Pagac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Unzeitig form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.50 / Unzeitig 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Pagac)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244003
Pagac1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 112 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it78% 74 of 95
Unzeitig2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 34 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac9wins
AwayUnzeitig1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%6 of 6
AwayUnzeitig25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac6Unzeitig4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S2Pagac7Unzeitig3n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S3Pagac8Unzeitig2n = 10Pagac took 8 of 10
S4Pagac3Unzeitig2n = 5Pagac took 3 of 5
S5Pagac3Unzeitig0n = 3Pagac took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacUnzeitigP − UBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.830.9+7.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacUnzeitigBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 701 vs 148 / 31447.4%47.1%332 / 701 vs 148 / 314Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.50/Unzeitig 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Unzeitig won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 17:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig218850
LSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac2561090D. Unzeitig341112113
WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig154380
WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac3961111113D. Unzeitig35117891
WSep 12 · 10:00Z. Pagac4061112113D. Unzeitig361181071
WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig228680
WSep 10 · 19:00Z. Pagac549111112113D. Unzeitig4211751452
WAug 4 · 06:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig198650
WAug 3 · 10:00Z. Pagac48119116113D. Unzeitig4181151162
WJul 18 · 15:00Z. Pagac501151112113D. Unzeitig44711131032
Z. Pagac10
WOct 5 · 16:58Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Langer2.507790LOct 5 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.576131011102J. Holubec2.251111125123WOct 5 · 14:00D. Langer2.388460Z. Pagac1.531111113WSep 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig2.008850Z. Pagac1.731111113LSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.5061090D. Unzeitig2.501112113WSep 27 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2012811113T. Kypr1.611011961WSep 27 · 14:00D. Szotek1.73411761Z. Pagac2.0011911113LSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181LSep 26 · 20:30T. Kypr1.831111113Z. Pagac1.833980LSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113
D. Unzeitig10
WOct 5 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9113118133D. Langer1.8011911111LOct 5 · 14:30J. Holubec1.731116113D. Unzeitig2.0081490WSep 30 · 17:10D. Unzeitig1.7391111113J. Holubec2.00117671LSep 30 · 16:30D. Unzeitig2.00121179122J. Simecek1.731091111143WSep 30 · 15:00D. Unzeitig2.25117811133J. Holubec1.57911111112LSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792LSep 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig2.008850Z. Pagac1.731111113WSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.5061090D. Unzeitig2.501112113WSep 27 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.501191011113D. Szotek1.5071112752LSep 27 · 14:30T. Kypr1.731441111113D. Unzeitig2.0016119582
Upcoming Matches
Z. Pagac
D. Unzeitig
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.