TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115511119118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
115511119118––
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 40–43 Krzysztof Kapik Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 40 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5654.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-43 in 83
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1679 vs Kapik 1678
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Kapik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz +1 · Kapik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 1.86 / Kapik 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13243879
Poliniewicz1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 129 of 362
Down 0–1, comes back18% 38 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 126
Kapik1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite61% won 217 of 356
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it77% 146 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz3wins
AwayKapik7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz50%3 of 6
AwayKapik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz6Kapik4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Poliniewicz5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S3Poliniewicz5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Poliniewicz3Kapik6n = 9Kapik took 6 of 9
S5Poliniewicz2Kapik5n = 7Kapik took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczKapikP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.647.0−1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime1220 / 2103 vs 1112 / 209258%53.2%1220 / 2103 vs 1112 / 2092Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KapikPoliniewicz 1.86/Kapik 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz4981181392K. Kapik501161111113
WOct 1 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz52129119113K. Kapik43101141172
LSep 28 · 07:15G. Poliniewicz346101171K. Kapik3711123113
LSep 25 · 10:05G. Poliniewicz50111191182K. Kapik53139119113
LSep 25 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz511211117102K. Kapik54148911123
WSep 24 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz371114123K. Kapik30812100
LSep 23 · 03:20G. Poliniewicz4811811992K. Kapik50911811113
LSep 21 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz48131711162K. Kapik611119119113
LSep 17 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz351141191K. Kapik4381113113
WSep 16 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz521111910113K. Kapik4998111292
G. Poliniewicz10
LOct 5 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz1.683690D. Kostal2.051111113WOct 2 · 13:50P. Jendrzejewski1.901081171G. Poliniewicz1.8012118113LOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151WOct 2 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.051111133M. Rutkowski1.6588110LOct 2 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz1.80111101292K. Wisniewski1.914111210113LOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392WOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50781561K. Wloczko1.50111113113LOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980LOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191
K. Kapik10
LOct 5 · 04:25M. Olbrycht1.811212123K. Kapik1.901010100LOct 4 · 19:40K. Kapik1.53911871J. Nadolny2.3811711113WOct 4 · 18:30K. Kapik1.401111113J. Zochniak2.759780WOct 4 · 17:20K. Kapik1.131111113B. Sulkowski5.507880LOct 4 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.00144611113K. Kapik1.73121111452WOct 4 · 15:25K. Kapik1.401113113S. Brud2.7571180LOct 4 · 14:35P. David1.171111113K. Kapik4.507670WOct 4 · 13:20K. Kapik1.833K. Wisniewski1.831LOct 4 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.251211113K. Kapik3.7510320WOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392
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