TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Plishylo vs Yurii Shmyndra 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611114111711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Plishylo above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 62 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Plishylo 0–1 Yurii Shmyndra Volodymyr Plishylo has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:3354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Shmyndra
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Plishylo 1587 vs Shmyndra 1583
Plishylo
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plishylo 40% vs Shmyndra 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plishylo 50% vs Shmyndra 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plishylo -2 · Shmyndra -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shmyndra form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlishylo 1.909 / Shmyndra 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shmyndra)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240173
Plishylo1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Shmyndra1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 27 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it58% 14 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePlishylo0wins
AwayShmyndra1wins
Shmyndra leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPlishyloShmyndraP − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Sweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlishyloShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 620 vs 95 / 20942.7%45.5%265 / 620 vs 95 / 209Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraPlishylo 1.91/Shmyndra 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
V. Plishylo10
LOct 4 · 07:05V. Plishylo1.287750V. Vlasenko3.501111113LOct 4 · 05:05V. Plishylo1.73714771O. Mitla2.00111211113WOct 3 · 18:35V. Plishylo2.00117119113N. Kovalchuk1.7361191172LOct 3 · 16:35O. Mitla2.101141111113V. Plishylo1.6771181362WOct 3 · 15:35V. Plishylo2.0091112113O. Hura1.731171071LOct 3 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra2.00111110113V. Plishylo1.73481281WOct 3 · 13:05V. Plishylo1.3031313113M. Smyrnov3.4011111121LSep 12 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.7387111492Y. Kravets2.001111512113WSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482WSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182
Y. Shmyndra10
LOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.501111113Y. Shmyndra2.509670WOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123WOct 3 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra1.911111123M. Smyrnov1.8099100LOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188122N. Kovalchuk1.611081111143WOct 3 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra2.00111110113V. Plishylo1.73481281LOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra1.83813721O. Hura1.83111111113WSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870WSep 28 · 16:30Y. Shmyndra1.671211110113M. Deineha2.10101161252LSep 28 · 15:00Y. Shmyndra1.83114531A. Lievshin1.8371111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Plishylo
Y. Shmyndra
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.