TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Mitla vs Yurii Shmyndra 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11681115171012––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:56 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 90 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 62.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 6–10 Yurii Shmyndra Oleksii Mitla has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5662.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Shmyndra
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Shmyndra
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1529 vs Shmyndra 1625
Shmyndra
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 40% vs Shmyndra 60%
Shmyndra
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 50% vs Shmyndra 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla +1 · Shmyndra +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Shmyndra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 2.375 / Shmyndra 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Shmyndra)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234899
Mitla2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 126 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Shmyndra1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite45% won 26 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it58% 14 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla4wins
AwayShmyndra6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShmyndra leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla75%3 of 4
AwayShmyndra83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla4Shmyndra6n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S2Mitla5Shmyndra5n = 10split evenly
S3Mitla2Shmyndra8n = 10Shmyndra took 8 of 10
S4Mitla4Shmyndra3n = 7Mitla took 4 of 7
S5Mitla2Shmyndra2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaShmyndraM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.041.4−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 836 vs 94 / 20643.5%45.6%364 / 836 vs 94 / 206Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraMitla 2.38/Shmyndra 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 6 · 06:05O. Mitla541211911113Y. Shmyndra49101311962
LAug 30 · 06:35O. Mitla29511761Y. Shmyndra4011711113
LAug 23 · 11:35O. Mitla169520Y. Shmyndra331111113
LAug 22 · 12:35O. Mitla39151111112Y. Shmyndra51111188133
WAug 8 · 16:05O. Mitla45101113113Y. Shmyndra351241181
WAug 7 · 21:00O. Mitla43111146113Y. Shmyndra4595111192
LJul 5 · 06:35O. Mitla36911971Y. Shmyndra4111811113
LJul 4 · 14:05O. Mitla4311841192Y. Shmyndra43611114113
LJun 28 · 05:05O. Mitla2891270Y. Shmyndra361114113
O. Mitla10
WOct 3 · 16:35O. Mitla2.101141111113V. Plishylo1.6771181362LOct 3 · 15:05O. Mitla1.9171280M. Smyrnov1.801114113WOct 3 · 13:35O. Mitla1.571181111113O. Hura2.2571113752LOct 3 · 12:05O. Mitla2.7521111262N. Kovalchuk1.40118511113LOct 2 · 02:45O. Hura1.73817114113O. Mitla2.00111561182LOct 2 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.367121211113O. Mitla3.00111014572WOct 2 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.836970O. Mitla1.831111113WOct 1 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.80711391O. Mitla1.9111411113WOct 1 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.80117551O. Mitla1.9191111113LOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113
Y. Shmyndra10
WOct 3 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra1.911111123M. Smyrnov1.8099100LOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188122N. Kovalchuk1.611081111143WOct 3 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra2.00111110113V. Plishylo1.73481281LOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra1.83813721O. Hura1.83111111113WSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870WSep 28 · 16:30Y. Shmyndra1.671211110113M. Deineha2.10101161252LSep 28 · 15:00Y. Shmyndra1.83114531A. Lievshin1.8371111113LSep 28 · 13:30Y. Shmyndra2.00511161182A. Yurkov1.73117186113LSep 28 · 12:00Y. Shmyndra1.7311117792A. Hrabskyi2.00451111113WSep 25 · 16:24A. Lievshin1.83128571Y. Shmyndra1.83101111113
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