TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Mitla vs Volodymyr Plishylo 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1174111181113116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:25 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Plishylo to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Volodymyr Plishylo below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Volodymyr Plishylo at 55.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 1–1 Volodymyr Plishylo Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2555.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Plishylo
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1516 vs Plishylo 1596
Plishylo
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 20% vs Plishylo 60%
Plishylo
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 50% vs Plishylo 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -1 · Plishylo +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Plishylo) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 2.10 / Plishylo 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Plishylo)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234931
Mitla2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 126 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Plishylo1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite49% won 20 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMitla1wins
AwayPlishylo1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMitlaPlishyloM − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match35.537.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaPlishyloBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 835 vs 268 / 62143.5%43.2%363 / 835 vs 268 / 621Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlishyloMitla 2.10/Plishylo 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Plishylo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 19 · 06:35O. Mitla3911125113V. Plishylo358101161
LApr 17 · 22:00O. Mitla32114891V. Plishylo3961111113
O. Mitla10
LOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123LOct 3 · 15:05O. Mitla1.9171280M. Smyrnov1.801114113WOct 3 · 13:35O. Mitla1.571181111113O. Hura2.2571113752LOct 3 · 12:05O. Mitla2.7521111262N. Kovalchuk1.40118511113LOct 2 · 02:45O. Hura1.73817114113O. Mitla2.00111561182LOct 2 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.367121211113O. Mitla3.00111014572WOct 2 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.836970O. Mitla1.831111113WOct 1 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.80711391O. Mitla1.9111411113WOct 1 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.80117551O. Mitla1.9191111113LOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113
V. Plishylo10
WOct 3 · 15:35V. Plishylo2.0091112113O. Hura1.731171071LOct 3 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra2.00111110113V. Plishylo1.73481281WOct 3 · 13:05V. Plishylo1.3031313113M. Smyrnov3.4011111121LSep 12 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.7387111492Y. Kravets2.001111512113WSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482WSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182LSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113WSep 12 · 04:35V. Plishylo1.8391411113R. Haiseniuk1.831112981LAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123LAug 29 · 09:05V. Plishylo1.83761181O. Napirko1.8311116113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.