TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Oleksii Mitla 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71112101214115117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:41 and never touched: 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 100 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 73.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 8–2 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:4173.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.3pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lazebnyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Lazebnyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1639 vs Mitla 1542
Lazebnyi
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 80% vs Mitla 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 60% vs Mitla 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi +1 · Mitla +3
Mitla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 1.363 / Mitla 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Lazebnyi)-0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13223539
Lazebnyi1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 51 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Mitla3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 127 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back25% 52 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLazebnyi8wins
AwayMitla2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyi77.8%7 of 9
AwayMitlan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi9Mitla1n = 10Lazebnyi took 9 of 10
S2Lazebnyi5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Lazebnyi6Mitla4n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S4Lazebnyi7Mitla0n = 7Lazebnyi took 7 of 7
S5Lazebnyi1Mitla2n = 3Mitla took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLazebnyiMitlaL − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.934.1+6.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 170 vs 362 / 83050%43.6%85 / 170 vs 362 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiLazebnyi 1.36/Mitla 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 02:30R. Lazebnyi341111123O. Mitla2697100
LSep 20 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi50117131182O. Mitla52911156113
WSep 18 · 01:15R. Lazebnyi4011611123O. Mitla367118101
WSep 17 · 00:15R. Lazebnyi3811115113O. Mitla33941191
WSep 15 · 20:45R. Lazebnyi3911611113O. Mitla29711471
LSep 1 · 23:15R. Lazebnyi50118111462O. Mitla558111312113
WAug 24 · 23:45R. Lazebnyi4281111123O. Mitla341149101
WAug 18 · 02:45R. Lazebnyi331111113O. Mitla123540
WAug 6 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi49119711113O. Mitla3951111932
WAug 1 · 15:05R. Lazebnyi341112113O. Mitla2591060
R. Lazebnyi10
WOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133LOct 1 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.7512811113R. Lazebnyi1.401011971WOct 1 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.6311711732R. Lazebnyi1.44611811113WSep 29 · 11:35R. Lazebnyi2.251111133D. Neborak1.5777110WSep 29 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.4051111542R. Lazebnyi2.75119811113LSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak1.4411114113R. Lazebnyi2.63861191WSep 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi1.831291411113I. Romaniak1.83101116542LSep 29 · 05:35O. Napirko1.8311136113R. Lazebnyi1.838111181WSep 28 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4041211632R. Lazebnyi2.751110311113LSep 28 · 01:30O. Napirko1.9111116113R. Lazebnyi1.80941171
O. Mitla10
LOct 2 · 02:45O. Hura1.73817114113O. Mitla2.00111561182WOct 2 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.836970O. Mitla1.831111113WOct 1 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.80711391O. Mitla1.9111411113WOct 1 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.80117551O. Mitla1.9191111113LOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113WOct 1 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.00118981O. Mitla1.7391111113LSep 30 · 23:45O. Mitla2.20711591O. Hura1.6111711113LSep 30 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.731111113O. Mitla2.009790LSep 30 · 21:15O. Mitla1.918340M. Smyrnov1.801111113WSep 30 · 02:45O. Hura1.7361111121O. Mitla2.0011413143
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