TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Vlasenko vs Ruslan Lazebnyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711118711311
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched: 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 86 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 68.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 2–9 Ruslan Lazebnyi Valerii Vlasenko has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:4068.8%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.5pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lazebnyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Lazebnyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1535 vs Lazebnyi 1638
Lazebnyi
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Lazebnyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko +1 · Lazebnyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.625 / Lazebnyi 1.444
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Lazebnyi)-0.5pp
Setka Cup · #13223730
Vlasenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 125 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back23% 36 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Lazebnyi1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 51 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko2wins
AwayLazebnyi8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko50%2 of 4
AwayLazebnyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko4Lazebnyi6n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko4Lazebnyi6n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S3Vlasenko2Lazebnyi8n = 10Lazebnyi took 8 of 10
S4Vlasenko3Lazebnyi5n = 8Lazebnyi took 5 of 8
S5Vlasenko1Lazebnyi2n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoLazebnyiV − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.643.5−7.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 937 vs 83 / 16743.8%49.7%410 / 937 vs 83 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiVlasenko 2.63/Lazebnyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 00:00V. Vlasenko217770R. Lazebnyi331111113
LSep 19 · 18:35V. Vlasenko31611681R. Lazebnyi4111811113
LSep 17 · 21:15V. Vlasenko378111171R. Lazebnyi4311813113
WSep 15 · 23:45V. Vlasenko48123119133R. Lazebnyi481011511112
LAug 31 · 22:45V. Vlasenko28641171R. Lazebnyi3811115113
LAug 26 · 00:15V. Vlasenko38112311112R. Lazebnyi53911119133
LAug 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko4591571132R. Lazebnyi551113119113
LAug 18 · 00:15V. Vlasenko371169111R. Lazebnyi4381111133
LAug 7 · 01:15V. Vlasenko28131140R. Lazebnyi391513113
WAug 6 · 00:15V. Vlasenko4312146113R. Lazebnyi4210121191
V. Vlasenko10
WOct 1 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91711100V. Vlasenko1.801113123LOct 1 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.001151181M. Smyrnov1.7313114113WOct 1 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.20611118123N. Kovalchuk1.61119911102WSep 30 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.731111113O. Mitla2.009790LSep 30 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.3874131172O. Hura1.531111118113WSep 30 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.102990V. Vlasenko1.671111113LSep 30 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1075120M. Smyrnov1.671111143LSep 30 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.7313811872O. Mitla2.001111811113WSep 29 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.20101111113O. Hura1.61127981LSep 29 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.251111111072N. Kovalchuk1.57133712113
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 29 · 11:35R. Lazebnyi2.251111133D. Neborak1.5777110WSep 29 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.4051111542R. Lazebnyi2.75119811113LSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak1.4411114113R. Lazebnyi2.63861191WSep 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi1.831291411113I. Romaniak1.83101116542LSep 29 · 05:35O. Napirko1.8311136113R. Lazebnyi1.838111181WSep 28 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4041211632R. Lazebnyi2.751110311113LSep 28 · 01:30O. Napirko1.9111116113R. Lazebnyi1.80941171LSep 28 · 00:00D. Neborak1.831112113R. Lazebnyi1.8381050WSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113LSep 27 · 20:00S. Rak1.3611311113R. Lazebnyi3.00911661
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