TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Hura vs Oleksii Mitla 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111715116411118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:32 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Orest Hura at 54.1%
102 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 34–26 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 26 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:3254.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-26 in 60
Hura
Correct
gap of 8 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1551 vs Mitla 1534
Hura
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 60% vs Mitla 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Mitla 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura -2 · Mitla -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.727 / Mitla 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hura)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223560
Hura1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 93 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it73% 66 of 91
Mitla2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 127 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back25% 52 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura6wins
AwayMitla4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura66.7%4 of 6
AwayMitla50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura6Mitla4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Hura4Mitla6n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S3Hura8Mitla2n = 10Hura took 8 of 10
S4Hura7Mitla2n = 9Hura took 7 of 9
S5Hura0Mitla3n = 3Mitla took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraMitlaH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.338.2+5.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 795 vs 362 / 83152.5%43.6%417 / 795 vs 362 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HuraHura 1.73/Mitla 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 23:45O. Hura4011711113O. Mitla32711591
LSep 30 · 02:45O. Hura4061111121O. Mitla4211413143
WSep 26 · 12:35O. Hura3911611113O. Mitla30811381
LSep 25 · 02:45O. Hura561112811142O. Mitla54814115163
WSep 21 · 06:55O. Hura4691412113O. Mitla4111121081
LSep 16 · 22:45O. Hura4611913942O. Mitla484111111113
WSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura3911611113O. Mitla30411781
LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura4999111192O. Mitla47111195113
WSep 4 · 20:30O. Hura45101211123O. Mitla3812106101
WSep 2 · 23:15O. Hura331111113O. Mitla207580
O. Hura10
LOct 2 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.2012111111113O. Hura1.6114913992LOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133WOct 1 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10111191142O. Hura1.67137117113WOct 1 · 21:15O. Hura1.739101111113M. Smyrnov2.0011126242WOct 1 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.009790O. Hura1.731111113LOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113WSep 30 · 23:45O. Mitla2.20711591O. Hura1.6111711113LSep 30 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.00137119113O. Hura1.73111181152WSep 30 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.3874131172O. Hura1.531111118113LSep 30 · 02:45O. Hura1.7361111121O. Mitla2.0011413143
O. Mitla10
LOct 2 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.367121211113O. Mitla3.00111014572WOct 2 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.836970O. Mitla1.831111113WOct 1 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.80711391O. Mitla1.9111411113WOct 1 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.80117551O. Mitla1.9191111113LOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113WOct 1 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.00118981O. Mitla1.7391111113LSep 30 · 23:45O. Mitla2.20711591O. Hura1.6111711113LSep 30 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.731111113O. Mitla2.009790LSep 30 · 21:15O. Mitla1.918340M. Smyrnov1.801111113WSep 30 · 02:45O. Hura1.7361111121O. Mitla2.0011413143
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