TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Vlasenko vs Orest Hura 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113117911117411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:35 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 95 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Orest Hura at 56.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 64–97 Orest Hura Valerii Vlasenko has won 64 of their 161 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:3556.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
64-97 in 161
Hura
Correct
gap of 33 in 161, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1528 vs Hura 1564
Hura
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Hura 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Hura 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -1 · Hura +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.10 / Hura 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Hura)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224066
Vlasenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 125 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back23% 36 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Hura1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 93 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it73% 66 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko4wins
AwayHura6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko100%3 of 3
AwayHura85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S2Vlasenko2Hura8n = 10Hura took 8 of 10
S3Vlasenko8Hura2n = 10Vlasenko took 8 of 10
S4Vlasenko5Hura4n = 9Vlasenko took 5 of 9
S5Vlasenko1Hura2n = 3Hura took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoHuraV − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.245.6−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 933 vs 416 / 79243.7%52.5%408 / 933 vs 416 / 792Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HuraVlasenko 2.10/Hura 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 20:45V. Vlasenko4274131172O. Hura521111118113
WSep 29 · 22:45V. Vlasenko43101111113O. Hura36127981
WSep 27 · 11:05V. Vlasenko5513101110113O. Hura53111291292
LSep 25 · 00:15V. Vlasenko448813151O. Hura50111111173
WSep 21 · 07:55V. Vlasenko5712925113O. Hura5210112381
LSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2571080O. Hura341112113
LSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko351161171O. Hura4413119113
LSep 5 · 16:05V. Vlasenko48911121152O. Hura52117149113
WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko4611815123O. Hura4171113101
LSep 3 · 02:15V. Vlasenko37991181O. Hura4211119113
V. Vlasenko10
LOct 1 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.6311711732R. Lazebnyi1.44611811113WOct 1 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91711100V. Vlasenko1.801113123LOct 1 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.001151181M. Smyrnov1.7313114113WOct 1 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.20611118123N. Kovalchuk1.61119911102WSep 30 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.731111113O. Mitla2.009790LSep 30 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.3874131172O. Hura1.531111118113WSep 30 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.102990V. Vlasenko1.671111113LSep 30 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1075120M. Smyrnov1.671111143LSep 30 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.7313811872O. Mitla2.001111811113WSep 29 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.20101111113O. Hura1.61127981
O. Hura10
WOct 1 · 21:15O. Hura1.739101111113M. Smyrnov2.0011126242WOct 1 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.009790O. Hura1.731111113LOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113WSep 30 · 23:45O. Mitla2.20711591O. Hura1.6111711113LSep 30 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.00137119113O. Hura1.73111181152WSep 30 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.3874131172O. Hura1.531111118113LSep 30 · 02:45O. Hura1.7361111121O. Mitla2.0011413143WSep 30 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.101091281O. Hura1.67121110113LSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura2.2013980N. Kovalchuk1.611511113LSep 29 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.20101111113O. Hura1.61127981
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