TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Shmyndra vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191210––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-2
Point 49 set 3, 7-2 · our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
49 points drawn · the score is 13 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 5–8 Mykyta Smyrnov Yurii Shmyndra has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0454.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1613 vs Smyrnov 1555
Shmyndra
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 60% vs Smyrnov 80%
Smyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 40% vs Smyrnov 60%
Smyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra -1 · Smyrnov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 1.909 / Smyrnov 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shmyndra)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13234793
Shmyndra1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 50 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Smyrnov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 109 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra4wins
AwaySmyrnov6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra50%2 of 4
AwaySmyrnov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Shmyndra8Smyrnov2n = 10Shmyndra took 8 of 10
S3Shmyndra2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S4Shmyndra3Smyrnov5n = 8Smyrnov took 5 of 8
S5Shmyndra1Smyrnov2n = 3Smyrnov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraSmyrnovShmyndra − SmyrnovBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.7−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 205 vs 420 / 86645.9%48.5%94 / 205 vs 420 / 866Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraShmyndra 1.91/Smyrnov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra491111106113M. Smyrnov4797121182
LAug 30 · 11:35Y. Shmyndra46111176112M. Smyrnov44451111133
LAug 29 · 12:05Y. Shmyndra26411741M. Smyrnov4111811113
LAug 23 · 10:05Y. Shmyndra2481150M. Smyrnov351113113
LAug 21 · 22:00Y. Shmyndra2594120M. Smyrnov361111143
LAug 9 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra24511351M. Smyrnov4111811113
WAug 8 · 14:05Y. Shmyndra4291111113M. Smyrnov35117981
LJul 12 · 10:05Y. Shmyndra4211158352M. Smyrnov537131111113
WJul 4 · 15:05Y. Shmyndra4011126113M. Smyrnov336101161
WJun 28 · 11:35Y. Shmyndra4071111113M. Smyrnov32115881
Y. Shmyndra10
WOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123LOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188122N. Kovalchuk1.611081111143WOct 3 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra2.00111110113V. Plishylo1.73481281LOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra1.83813721O. Hura1.83111111113WSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870WSep 28 · 16:30Y. Shmyndra1.671211110113M. Deineha2.10101161252LSep 28 · 15:00Y. Shmyndra1.83114531A. Lievshin1.8371111113LSep 28 · 13:30Y. Shmyndra2.00511161182A. Yurkov1.73117186113LSep 28 · 12:00Y. Shmyndra1.7311117792A. Hrabskyi2.00451111113WSep 25 · 16:24A. Lievshin1.83128571Y. Shmyndra1.83101111113
M. Smyrnov10
WOct 3 · 15:05O. Mitla1.9171280M. Smyrnov1.801114113WOct 3 · 14:05M. Smyrnov2.3811411113N. Kovalchuk1.53711581LOct 3 · 13:05V. Plishylo1.3031313113M. Smyrnov3.4011111121WOct 2 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.501113913113R. Lazebnyi1.50611111592WOct 2 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1081111672M. Smyrnov1.67115311113WOct 1 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.20114891M. Smyrnov1.6181111113LOct 1 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.80711391O. Mitla1.9111411113LOct 1 · 21:15O. Hura1.739101111113M. Smyrnov2.0011126242LOct 1 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.009790O. Hura1.731111113WOct 1 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.001151181M. Smyrnov1.7313114113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Shmyndra
Nothing scheduled
M. Smyrnov
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