TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Hura vs Yurii Shmyndra 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 10–7 Yurii Shmyndra Yurii Shmyndra has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Shmyndra
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Hura
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1552 vs Shmyndra 1583
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 0% vs Shmyndra 60%
Shmyndra
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 30% vs Shmyndra 50%
Shmyndra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura -5 · Shmyndra -1
Hura
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.833 / Shmyndra 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shmyndra)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13240682
Hura1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Shmyndra1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura6wins
AwayShmyndra4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura83.3%5 of 6
AwayShmyndra75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura6Shmyndra4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Hura4Shmyndra6n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S3Hura7Shmyndra3n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S4Hura5Shmyndra3n = 8Hura took 5 of 8
S5Hura2Shmyndra2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraShmyndraH − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.9+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 804 vs 95 / 20952.4%45.5%421 / 804 vs 95 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraHura 1.83/Shmyndra 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura351311113Y. Shmyndra2711790
WOct 3 · 12:35O. Hura44111111113Y. Shmyndra30813721
WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura4211911113Y. Shmyndra33811681
WAug 30 · 05:35O. Hura47118116113Y. Shmyndra4691191162
WAug 29 · 16:35O. Hura45811411113Y. Shmyndra4511811872
LAug 23 · 08:05O. Hura399118111Y. Shmyndra4211711133
WAug 22 · 01:00O. Hura331111113Y. Shmyndra229580
LAug 16 · 06:35O. Hura4149111162Y. Shmyndra41111135113
LAug 15 · 19:05O. Hura32116871Y. Shmyndra4071111113
LAug 8 · 18:35O. Hura46107121162Y. Shmyndra531211109113
O. Hura10
WOct 4 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.57981181O. Hura2.2511117113LOct 4 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1011117113O. Hura1.67631191LOct 3 · 19:05M. Smyrnov2.1011611113O. Hura1.67511671LOct 3 · 17:35O. Hura2.25115951N. Kovalchuk1.5791111113LOct 3 · 15:35V. Plishylo2.0091112113O. Hura1.731171071LOct 3 · 13:35O. Mitla1.571181111113O. Hura2.2571113752WOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra1.83813721O. Hura1.83111111113WOct 2 · 02:45O. Hura1.73817114113O. Mitla2.00111561182LOct 2 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.2012111111113O. Hura1.6114913992LOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133
Y. Shmyndra10
LOct 4 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.501111113Y. Shmyndra2.509670WOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123WOct 3 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra1.911111123M. Smyrnov1.8099100LOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188122N. Kovalchuk1.611081111143WOct 3 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra2.00111110113V. Plishylo1.73481281LOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra1.83813721O. Hura1.83111111113WSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870WSep 28 · 16:30Y. Shmyndra1.671211110113M. Deineha2.10101161252LSep 28 · 15:00Y. Shmyndra1.83114531A. Lievshin1.8371111113LSep 28 · 13:30Y. Shmyndra2.00511161182A. Yurkov1.73117186113
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