TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Hura vs Nazar Kovalchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511911511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:25 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 60.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 13–19 Nazar Kovalchuk Orest Hura has won 13 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2560.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-19 in 32
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1574 vs Kovalchuk 1644
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Kovalchuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura -2 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 2.25 / Kovalchuk 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234371
Hura2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Kovalchuk1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 171 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 112 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura2wins
AwayKovalchuk8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura40%2 of 5
AwayKovalchuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Hura3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Hura4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Hura4Kovalchuk3n = 7Hura took 4 of 7
S5Hura0Kovalchuk5n = 5Kovalchuk took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraKovalchukH − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.542.8−3.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 799 vs 410 / 78952.4%52%419 / 799 vs 410 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukHura 2.25/Kovalchuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura4211911652N. Kovalchuk47611811113
LSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura3013980N. Kovalchuk371511113
LSep 26 · 13:35O. Hura47111511642N. Kovalchuk56817911113
WSep 21 · 10:08O. Hura48111511113N. Kovalchuk38817761
LSep 21 · 05:55O. Hura227870N. Kovalchuk331111113
LSep 16 · 23:45O. Hura45114111182N. Kovalchuk51711913113
LSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura4851771182N. Kovalchuk521115114113
LAug 25 · 23:15O. Hura238960N. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 6 · 20:15O. Hura4311129113N. Kovalchuk315101151
LAug 1 · 15:35O. Hura47101171182N. Kovalchuk50127119113
O. Hura10
LOct 3 · 15:35V. Plishylo2.0091112113O. Hura1.731171071LOct 3 · 13:35O. Mitla1.571181111113O. Hura2.2571113752WOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra1.83813721O. Hura1.83111111113WOct 2 · 02:45O. Hura1.73817114113O. Mitla2.00111561182LOct 2 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.2012111111113O. Hura1.6114913992LOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133WOct 1 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10111191142O. Hura1.67137117113WOct 1 · 21:15O. Hura1.739101111113M. Smyrnov2.0011126242WOct 1 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.009790O. Hura1.731111113LOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113
N. Kovalchuk10
WOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188122N. Kovalchuk1.611081111143LOct 3 · 14:05M. Smyrnov2.3811411113N. Kovalchuk1.53711581WOct 3 · 12:05O. Mitla2.7521111262N. Kovalchuk1.40118511113WOct 2 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4411117682N. Kovalchuk2.63511111113LOct 2 · 01:30D. Zeniuk1.301311113N. Kovalchuk3.4011590LOct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.831111113N. Kovalchuk1.838990WOct 1 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.731211871N. Kovalchuk2.0014811113LOct 1 · 20:00S. Rak1.361111113N. Kovalchuk3.008870WOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113WOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113
Upcoming Matches
O. Hura
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