TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Slozka vs Dmytro Palii 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012611––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Slozka above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 58 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Dmytro Palii at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Slozka 11–7 Dmytro Palii Dmytro Palii has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Slozka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Slozka
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slozka 1547 vs Palii 1619
Palii
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slozka 40% vs Palii 60%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slozka 40% vs Palii 70%
Palii
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slozka +1 · Palii -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Palii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slozka form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 1.80 / Palii 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Palii)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13239970
Slozka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 73 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it80% 55 of 69
Palii1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 26 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back39% 10 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlozka6wins
AwayPalii4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozka66.7%4 of 6
AwayPalii50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka6Palii4n = 10Slozka took 6 of 10
S2Slozka5Palii5n = 10split evenly
S3Slozka6Palii4n = 10Slozka took 6 of 10
S4Slozka3Palii3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlozkaPaliiS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.333.2+5.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 774 vs 132 / 22245.5%59.5%352 / 774 vs 132 / 222Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiSlozka 1.80/Palii 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 4 · 06:25M. Slozka2481060D. Palii341112113
LOct 3 · 12:55M. Slozka49131111862D. Palii51158611113
WSep 27 · 06:25M. Slozka331111113D. Palii168350
WSep 25 · 22:15M. Slozka331111113D. Palii131390
WSep 20 · 08:25M. Slozka4261411113D. Palii361112851
LSep 19 · 01:22M. Slozka401191371D. Palii4141115113
WSep 19 · 00:15M. Slozka43101111113D. Palii30122881
LSep 12 · 05:55M. Slozka31114971D. Palii4181111113
WSep 11 · 16:55M. Slozka50118911113D. Palii3741111652
M. Slozka10
LOct 4 · 07:25V. Kuzmych2.001111113M. Slozka1.739970WOct 4 · 05:25A. Kotiash2.0066111142M. Slozka1.73111189113LOct 3 · 18:25M. Slozka1.6781171182I. Fashchevskyi2.10117114113WOct 3 · 16:25O. Gazhula1.676116101M. Slozka2.1011611123LOct 3 · 15:25M. Slozka1.509511111A. Kotiash2.5011119123LOct 3 · 14:25V. Kuzmych2.2051211113M. Slozka1.611110371LOct 3 · 12:55M. Slozka1.67131111862D. Palii2.10158611113WOct 3 · 02:30O. Storozhenko1.67691471M. Slozka2.10111112113LOct 3 · 01:30D. Maltsev1.57131111113M. Slozka2.25158851LOct 3 · 00:00Y. Tebenko1.83111110113M. Slozka1.83751241
D. Palii10
LOct 4 · 04:25V. Kuzmych2.2012111114113D. Palii1.6114761682WOct 3 · 18:55D. Palii1.40861111103A. Kotiash2.7511113682LOct 3 · 16:55V. Kuzmych2.3891111113D. Palii1.53113491WOct 3 · 14:55O. Gazhula2.10141191392D. Palii1.671291115113WOct 3 · 13:55D. Palii1.911111113I. Fashchevskyi1.807780WOct 3 · 12:55M. Slozka1.67131111862D. Palii2.10158611113WOct 3 · 01:48D. Palii1.611211113V. Korobko2.2010780WOct 3 · 00:15D. Palii1.57111111113A. Kotiash2.25136741LOct 2 · 23:15V. Korobko2.751111113D. Palii1.407770WOct 2 · 22:15O. Sydorchuk2.50111267122D. Palii1.507101111143
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