TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evgeniy Pismenniy vs Roman Cherevko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111012911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:01 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Roman Cherevko at 66.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 69–170 Roman Cherevko Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 69 of their 239 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0166.9%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 18.9pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
69-170 in 239
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 101 in 239, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1549 vs Cherevko 1727
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 40% vs Cherevko 60%
Cherevko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 40% vs Cherevko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy -3 · Cherevko -1
Pismenniy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Cherevko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 4.50 / Cherevko 1.166
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Cherevko)-18.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239959
Pismenniy4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 62 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back8% 13 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 96
Cherevko1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 101 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it85% 70 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy1wins
AwayCherevko9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy20%1 of 5
AwayCherevko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy5Cherevko5n = 10split evenly
S2Pismenniy4Cherevko6n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S3Pismenniy6Cherevko4n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S4Pismenniy1Cherevko8n = 9Cherevko took 8 of 9
S5Pismenniy0Cherevko5n = 5Cherevko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyCherevkoP − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.945.1−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 699 vs 380 / 73429.5%51.8%206 / 699 vs 380 / 734Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoPismenniy 4.50/Cherevko 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 18:55E. Pismenniy209650R. Cherevko331111113
WOct 3 · 02:25E. Pismenniy4211911113R. Cherevko28711731
LSep 27 · 15:25E. Pismenniy48711127112R. Cherevko541191011133
LSep 26 · 18:55E. Pismenniy27115831R. Cherevko4071111113
LSep 26 · 02:25E. Pismenniy531111121182R. Cherevko53691413113
LSep 19 · 15:55E. Pismenniy51151111592R. Cherevko56178911113
LSep 19 · 02:25E. Pismenniy48811121072R. Cherevko511171012113
LSep 13 · 19:55E. Pismenniy351181061R. Cherevko4281112113
LSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy3911711372R. Cherevko50811911113
LSep 12 · 02:25E. Pismenniy368121151R. Cherevko4411148113
E. Pismenniy10
LOct 3 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.1011113113E. Pismenniy1.67471181LOct 3 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.331111113E. Pismenniy3.259650LOct 3 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5310111111113E. Pismenniy2.3812671382LOct 3 · 15:25Y. Masko1.441191172E. Pismenniy2.63811771WOct 3 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50511671E. Pismenniy2.5011511113WOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202WOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113WOct 3 · 00:25S. Hohenko1.33129981E. Pismenniy3.25101111113LOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182
R. Cherevko10
WOct 4 · 15:25R. Cherevko2.00119119113Y. Masko1.7341191162LOct 3 · 20:25Y. Masko1.6711411113R. Cherevko2.10711881WOct 3 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.331111113E. Pismenniy3.259650LOct 3 · 16:55R. Reznychenko2.101611493R. Cherevko1.671461161WOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123WOct 3 · 13:55V. Melnik1.839790R. Cherevko1.831111113WOct 3 · 03:25S. Hohenko2.0038121162R. Cherevko1.731111109113LOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123LOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113
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