TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Hohenko vs Roman Cherevko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3118111210119611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:08 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Hohenko above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Roman Cherevko at 54.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Hohenko 0–4 Roman Cherevko Serhii Hohenko has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0854.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hohenko 1678 vs Cherevko 1720
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hohenko 20% vs Cherevko 40%
Cherevko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hohenko 40% vs Cherevko 60%
Cherevko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hohenko -3 · Cherevko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Cherevko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHohenko 2.00 / Cherevko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Cherevko)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229670
Hohenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 6 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Cherevko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 99 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it85% 67 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHohenko0wins
AwayCherevko4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderCherevko leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHohenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCherevko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hohenko1Cherevko3n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
S2Hohenko1Cherevko3n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
S3Hohenko1Cherevko3n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
S4Hohenko2Cherevko1n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHohenkoCherevkoH − CBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match33.545.8−12.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHohenkoCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 77 vs 377 / 72952%51.7%40 / 77 vs 377 / 729Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoHohenko 2.00/Cherevko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 3 · 03:25S. Hohenko4038121162R. Cherevko521111109113
LSep 20 · 18:25S. Hohenko163850R. Cherevko331111113
LSep 19 · 18:25S. Hohenko42111161132R. Cherevko53913119113
LSep 18 · 22:25S. Hohenko361311571R. Cherevko4515811113
S. Hohenko10
LOct 3 · 01:55S. Hohenko1.8371080V. Melnik1.831112113LOct 3 · 00:25S. Hohenko1.33129981E. Pismenniy3.25101111113LOct 2 · 22:55S. Hohenko1.4011118842R. Reznychenko2.75741111113WOct 2 · 21:25S. Hohenko1.911111113Y. Masko1.809980LSep 20 · 19:24R. Reznychenko3.50111412113S. Hohenko1.287121471LSep 20 · 18:25S. Hohenko1.833850R. Cherevko1.831111113WSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461WSep 20 · 15:55S. Hohenko2.00117119113Y. Masko1.7381131192LSep 20 · 13:55S. Hohenko2.757911101A. Tuzhylin1.4011117123WSep 19 · 20:25S. Hohenko1.37131111113R. Reznychenko2.85159861
R. Cherevko10
LOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123LOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.6711119133R. Reznychenko2.109811111WSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850LSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162WSep 27 · 16:25R. Reznychenko2.5061430R. Cherevko1.50111663WSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.501191011133E. Pismenniy2.50711127112LSep 27 · 14:25Y. Masko1.506111592R. Cherevko2.501191391WSep 20 · 18:25S. Hohenko1.833850R. Cherevko1.831111113
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