TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Cherevko vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119711311––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:11 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Roman Cherevko at 68.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 169–68 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 68 of their 237 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1168.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
169-68 in 237
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 101 in 237, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1728 vs Pismenniy 1525
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 202 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 40% vs Pismenniy 20%
Cherevko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 60% vs Pismenniy 30%
Cherevko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -2 · Pismenniy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Cherevko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.444 / Pismenniy 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Cherevko)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13229600
Cherevko1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 99 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it85% 67 of 79
Pismenniy2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko9wins
AwayPismenniy1wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPismenniy0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko6Pismenniy4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Cherevko4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko5Pismenniy5n = 10split evenly
S4Cherevko9Pismenniy1n = 10Cherevko took 9 of 10
S5Cherevko5Pismenniy1n = 6Cherevko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoPismenniyC − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.741.3+5.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 727 vs 203 / 69351.7%29.3%376 / 727 vs 203 / 693Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.44/Pismenniy 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko541191011133E. Pismenniy48711127112
WSep 26 · 18:55R. Cherevko4071111113E. Pismenniy27115831
WSep 26 · 02:25R. Cherevko53691413113E. Pismenniy531111121182
WSep 19 · 15:55R. Cherevko56178911113E. Pismenniy51151111592
WSep 19 · 02:25R. Cherevko511171012113E. Pismenniy48811121072
WSep 13 · 19:55R. Cherevko4281112113E. Pismenniy351181061
WSep 12 · 16:25R. Cherevko50811911113E. Pismenniy3911711372
WSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko4411148113E. Pismenniy368121151
LSep 6 · 16:55R. Cherevko3911611652E. Pismenniy43511511113
WSep 5 · 18:55R. Cherevko3811511113E. Pismenniy33711691
R. Cherevko10
WOct 3 · 03:25S. Hohenko2.0038121162R. Cherevko1.731111109113LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123LOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.6711119133R. Reznychenko2.109811111WSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850LSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162WSep 27 · 16:25R. Reznychenko2.5061430R. Cherevko1.50111663WSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.501191011133E. Pismenniy2.50711127112LSep 27 · 14:25Y. Masko1.506111592R. Cherevko2.501191391WSep 26 · 19:55Y. Masko1.501091131R. Cherevko2.5012119113
E. Pismenniy10
WOct 3 · 00:25S. Hohenko1.33129981E. Pismenniy3.25101111113LOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102LSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190WSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5711125692E. Pismenniy2.257101111113LSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.501191011133E. Pismenniy2.50711127112WSep 27 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.2571111992E. Pismenniy1.57117911113LSep 26 · 20:25R. Reznychenko1.91111411113E. Pismenniy1.806121381LSep 26 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63115831R. Cherevko1.4471111113
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