TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Cherevko vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116115––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Roman Cherevko at 75.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 169–69 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 69 of their 238 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5475.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
169-69 in 238
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 100 in 238, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1731 vs Pismenniy 1571
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 60% vs Pismenniy 80%
Pismenniy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 50% vs Pismenniy 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -1 · Pismenniy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Cherevko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.333 / Pismenniy 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Cherevko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13234596
Cherevko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 99 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it85% 68 of 80
Pismenniy3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back9% 13 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko8wins
AwayPismenniy2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko80%4 of 5
AwayPismenniy20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko5Pismenniy5n = 10split evenly
S2Cherevko5Pismenniy5n = 10split evenly
S3Cherevko4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S4Cherevko8Pismenniy2n = 10Cherevko took 8 of 10
S5Cherevko5Pismenniy1n = 6Cherevko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoPismenniyC − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.742.2+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 732 vs 206 / 69751.8%29.6%379 / 732 vs 206 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.33/Pismenniy 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko28711731E. Pismenniy4211911113
WSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko541191011133E. Pismenniy48711127112
WSep 26 · 18:55R. Cherevko4071111113E. Pismenniy27115831
WSep 26 · 02:25R. Cherevko53691413113E. Pismenniy531111121182
WSep 19 · 15:55R. Cherevko56178911113E. Pismenniy51151111592
WSep 19 · 02:25R. Cherevko511171012113E. Pismenniy48811121072
WSep 13 · 19:55R. Cherevko4281112113E. Pismenniy351181061
WSep 12 · 16:25R. Cherevko50811911113E. Pismenniy3911711372
WSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko4411148113E. Pismenniy368121151
LSep 6 · 16:55R. Cherevko3911611652E. Pismenniy43511511113
R. Cherevko10
LOct 3 · 16:55R. Reznychenko2.101611493R. Cherevko1.671461161WOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123WOct 3 · 13:55V. Melnik1.839790R. Cherevko1.831111113WOct 3 · 03:25S. Hohenko2.0038121162R. Cherevko1.731111109113LOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123LOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.6711119133R. Reznychenko2.109811111WSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850LSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162
E. Pismenniy10
LOct 3 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5310111111113E. Pismenniy2.3812671382LOct 3 · 15:25Y. Masko1.441191172E. Pismenniy2.63811771WOct 3 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50511671E. Pismenniy2.5011511113WOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202WOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113WOct 3 · 00:25S. Hohenko1.33129981E. Pismenniy3.25101111113LOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102LSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190
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