TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Roman Cherevko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-4
Point 45 set 3, 3-4 · our read held Valeriy Melnik at 54.0%
45 points drawn · the score is 13 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 142–93 Roman Cherevko Roman Cherevko has won 93 of their 235 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
142-93 in 235
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 49 in 235, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1732 vs Cherevko 1720
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 100% vs Cherevko 40%
Melnik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Cherevko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +5 · Cherevko +1
Melnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.833 / Cherevko 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melnik)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13234290
Melnik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Cherevko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik9wins
AwayCherevko1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayCherevko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik6Cherevko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S2Melnik6Cherevko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Melnik8Cherevko2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Melnik5Cherevko2n = 7Melnik took 5 of 7
S5Melnik3Cherevko1n = 4Melnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikCherevkoM − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.740.3+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 678 vs 377 / 72955.9%51.7%379 / 678 vs 377 / 729Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.83/Cherevko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 2 · 23:55V. Melnik49711911113R. Cherevko4111611492
WSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik51111199113R. Cherevko4479111162
WSep 26 · 17:25V. Melnik4591411113R. Cherevko391112791
WSep 25 · 22:25V. Melnik4615811123R. Cherevko4013116101
WSep 13 · 17:25V. Melnik47951111113R. Cherevko4211117762
WSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik4281112113R. Cherevko391191091
WSep 11 · 23:55V. Melnik331111113R. Cherevko268990
LSep 5 · 00:55V. Melnik571115111282R. Cherevko60917914113
WAug 29 · 13:55V. Melnik411119113R. Cherevko3261790
V. Melnik10
WOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 01:55S. Hohenko1.8371080V. Melnik1.831112113WOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.25111011133V. Melnik1.339129111WSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162LSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5711125692E. Pismenniy2.257101111113WSep 27 · 15:55V. Melnik1.731111103Y. Masko2.007770LSep 27 · 13:55V. Melnik2.201111581A. Tuzhylin1.6161311113
R. Cherevko10
WOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123WOct 3 · 03:25S. Hohenko2.0038121162R. Cherevko1.731111109113LOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123LOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.6711119133R. Reznychenko2.109811111WSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850LSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162WSep 27 · 16:25R. Reznychenko2.5061430R. Cherevko1.50111663WSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.501191011133E. Pismenniy2.50711127112
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